Sometime last week my daughter threw a tantrum,,, like when I was getting ready doing my “ritual” or procedure to prepare for trading as it was half-hour before the opening bell. My son was begging me, begging me to make her stop that whiny, loud crying she was doing. I tried to make her stop by asking her what’s wrong, in a calm voice. But she seems bent to make us plead and give her anything she wants, to bow in submission forever and ever. And me being mom – well, I can’t let her. I am not to be overpowered by a six year old kid. No. Way. The trick is to show that I can throw a bigger tantrum than her! LOL. While I am not one for drama, this was meant to teach her a lesson. But boy, was I tired after that!

Suffice it to say, that the markets opened without me, and well, I have to summon all my training to get back into a mental state that will let me trade in peace! My sister said, I have to know how to be a better actress. So I actually don’t get “emotionally spent” but the display of emotion is there. Good point.

Now, how do you actually get to achieve Peak Performance — ahhhh, my beloved Dr Van Tharp has the Peak Performance Homestudy Course has 5 chapters of detailed material for that. I recommend it with my life! He says there is actually a way that our mind works better, our overall psychology is better primed when we maintain a mental state that is supportive to success. When we are flustered, anxious, worried or angy, that doesn’t help decision-making at all. You need to shake it off! Plus here’s another great resource about how to achieve peak performance by means of rituals in “Barking Up The Wrong Tree”. http://www.bakadesuyo.com/2015/10/ritual/

Dancing also helps… get those happy hormones going…

Barking Up The Wrong Tree

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Last night was a bit of an over-reaction I think, the OECD projected growth to slow down, and that prompted nervous selling once again. Nonetheless, I have the funny feeling that US interest rates, recently being talked up to be a “live possibility” from almost all US Federal Reserve officials, is likely to be bumped further. I’ll hazard a guess — it’s going to be concern about “deflation”, you know the opposite of inflation. Instead of prices rising, prices are going down. Now that might excite people who love bargains, but think for a moment here. If something you bought today say $50 shoes, would be cheaper tomorrow ($48), you would tend to HOLD off, right?! (Well no, if I really really like it hehehe ) But let’s go to practical terms — when your whole grocery bill will be cheaper every week, then you are going to just want to enjoy that savings and buy every week, unlike if you know that prices will rise, people tend to buy more ie. in bulk and store them. Companies sure like that. Yes they do, because they can get to sell MORE of their products and then, they get back their capital for producing the said products, pay off their loans faster from their revenues (which cuts down their borrowing costs). Translates to bigger profit margins. Yeah we like that.

Now where there is no urgency, there is less money coming in. In this age of governments trying to control their spending, and only businesses are hiring, that paints a bad picture. They would tend to slow down their hiring too.

The US economy may have had jobs growth, BUT wage growth, the data that indicates how much more people can have “extra” to spend, is still a little too low. 2.5% year-to-date which they say is the highest since 2010 may be good news, (article here ) but I go, what can I really buy with 9cents extra?
0.09 cents x 40 hours x 4 weeks = 14.40 per month.

But, it’s still good news considering what’s out there like the the dire Chinese situation with falling prices and continuing economic decline.
But like I said, Deflation is dirty word, nobody wants it. I think they will want to hold off interest rates (and keep money on people’s hands to spend) to help speed up spending and ward off deflation. (UPDATE – No less than the IMF agrees with me, article here)

Just to share about one of my latest trades, GILD was down for most of last week but I saw 2 days that it was bouncing off the low of 106.5, and I’ve promptly bought some shares. It’s also in very low PE level > less than 10 so you can say and that’s what happened last night despite the big fall early in the session by the major indices, it was diverging and climbed steadily throughout the day. I love bargains!

I will be sharing my favourite bargain-hunting techniques in the market as well as the best investments for women.
“Learn to Invest Event … for Women Only” happening on November 21 at the Ortigas Bldg, Ortigas Ave. Pasig City.
Feel free to bring a friend ! Email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com to reserve your slot/s.

And before I forget, I’ve partnered with Finance Manila (owned by data provider ADVFN UK) to help widen the opportunities for their members. I will be offering the Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop back to back with US Investing Workshop with a fantastic 2 for 1 deal and more to celebrate the partnership. Check it out here:

So join us there!

All Eyes On Consumer Discretionary Earnings after Strong Jobs Data — Part 2: Strong Wage Growth Was Seen in October

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/china-s-deflation-pressures-signal-more-monetary-fiscal-easing

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Well some really good news from the greatest investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, the company doubled its profit for 3Q owing to no secret sauce but ketchup. Ahhaaa, in 2013 they bought ketchup maker H.J. Heinz and “embarked on an aggressive cost-cutting drive to boost margins. Then, in March, they engineered Heinz’s purchase of Kraft Foods Group Inc., creating the third-biggest food and beverage company in North America and a $4.4 billion windfall for Berkshire.” Article here

And because it’s Sunday I just thought I’d share some reflections the past week. I have been having more energy and focus in the market and continual study because of one thing — COMMITMENT. I have had to deal with house hunting, renovations etc so I am pulled in various directions. My social life has been so busy too. We all love our family, but things can get stressful in everyday life (and I won’t talk about having to deal with a mother-in-law! haha). So I was praying, Lord, please help me to have the energy, better health and focus so I can do my business well while I take care of my self and my kids. Answer to my prayers came to me with some articles I have been reading, one of those was “Barking Up The Wrong Tree” which is always a great read so I want to thank Eric Barker the writer of this blog. Check up his latest article “The Lazy Way to Stop Procrastinating” . However, I must say deep inside of us, we have that ONE reason or two, why we want to invest, why we keep studying and keeping up with the market, why we spend money to learn investing. That REASON is why we COMMIT. What is that reason for you?

My reasons are waiting for me to go on our Sunday roadtrip.
Blessings!

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“If you want more eggs, take care of the hen” is how a Japanese billionaire and former Buddhist priest explains his philosophy to improve business, proven when he “established electronics giant Kyocera Corp. more than five decades ago, create the $64 billion phone carrier now known as KDDI Corp., and rescue Japan Airlines Co. from its 2010 bankruptcy.” (Link here). He says not to focus too much on the interests of shareholders and espouses to “spend your time making staff happy instead”. It is not about putting their feet up, but with his books, he explains ” the social significance of their work and outlined Buddhist-inspired principles for how employees should live, such as being humble and doing the right thing. This made them proud of the company they work for and ready to work harder for its success”.

And we know how much women do so much for everybody in their lives, as mothers, wives, daughers, sisters and girl friends … from physical caring, empathy, plus all those “loving expenses”. So with that, I am delighted and excited to offer “Investing Event for Women Only” (as a workshop and webinar) yep, sorry guys, this one’s just for the ladies. I know many men reading my blog would be disappointed, but just send your mom, sister, wife, or friend, and you can of course attend the next one!

This will be on
21st of November
8:30 to 10am
Ortigas Bldg Conference Room, Ortigas Ave. Pasig City

WAIT There’s more!

This will be an ideas-packed event that will give you specific and actionable ideas to help you get started, but if you are serious about meeting your investment goals, we hold another part which details how to actually do the business of investing. This is the paid event from 10am to 12nn “Low-Risk High-Reward Investing”. You will be learning about the procedures, system rules that provide low-risk high-reward opportunities and of course, how to make money in the market or business environment we have.

Investing for Women – on this workshop, you’ll discover things like :
> How to increase your odds of having additional income from your investments
> Understanding the mindset needed for investors to be successful.
> How you can use your emotions to guide your investing. Some say invest without emotion – why, are we robots?
> The most important part of investing, it’s not the Entry technique!
> Biggest mistakes to avoid (including the ones that will make you grow wrinkles overnight!)
> Case studies on best investments for women

If you want to go further – the Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop follows and will tackle the following:
• The 10 parts of an Investing system
• Understanding position sizing
• Understanding the big picture and how to fit your strategy
• The 3 human inefficiencies that lead to losses
• How to translate information to profits
• Understanding how Big Money plays the game
• Prediction and expectation models
• Effective entry techniques
• 3 major risk areas and how to manage them
• Profit-taking exits
• Managing Fear and Greed

The Early Bird fee for the Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop is 1500 pesos, and if you bring a friend, we’ll mark it down even further to 2500pesos for the both of you! Email charmel@highheeledtraders.com for payment details.

So mark your calendars and if you haven’t got the free preview Ebook already, you can email me to request a copy at
charmel@highheeledtraders.com. Be a good girl… see you there!

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I’m slowly easing back into the investing actively, after taking time off due to my slow internet and review of my investment psychology. With “no rate hike for October” stocks went on upward trajectory, it seems there is no stopping the good times. Recently though, people are getting a bit fidgety that the run is hitting a wall with December rate hike in view. So here with high stock prices, where do we look for low-risk investments?

The first items to look out for are those paying high dividends. They are always attracting money because it gives, well, sure money in the form of dividends. If you check on their stock prices, their dividend yield is nearly 2% to more than 3.5% in this age of zero percent interest that’s a lot! I’m interested in a few that are admittedly not without problems —
Exxon Mobil – has to deal with low oil prices, but nonetheless they make a lot more on refining fuel products. I looked at the last quarter results and the margins for refining have doubled, and potentially continue with yet lower oil prices in the horizon after Iran cranks up their supply.
Apple – people are wondering whether China will take a bite off their earnings. Plus reliance on one product -the 1Phone. Nonetheless, they continue to lead the Tech front with more and more innovative products that is slowly becoming mainstream. Apple Watch wasn’t being celebrated as much but I think people are getting round to it.
JP Morgan – regulators are eyeing increased measures to prevent financial crisis but with the increase in interest rates that will attract more deposits, this is going to be good for banks.

They are also sporting very low PEs which means they are undervalued.

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Can you believe this rally?! We’ve been getting all these “surprises” from the market with the rally going on. I wasn’t able to catch the wave to be honest with you. I have had internet issues at home so I don’t dare take a position I can not monitor in this volatile market. Anyway, I spent time reviewing my Peak Performance Homestudy Course by Dr. Van Tharp and just very delighted of the new lessons I have picked up (actually it’s there all along but understanding them is a different matter – it takes experience and being open to uncover layers of lessons!) to better improve my decision-making in investing, and life for that matter. That’s how awesome it is.

One of the things that the course discusses is how we make “statements” or basically what we believe about the world as “real”, when we can only say something is real to ourselves (and not to other people) — depending on how we pick something up through our senses and our “filters” which is part of our mindset. Deep stuff! If I am to translate that to the investing world, why I say I am bearish at one time from how I look at the data and do my analysis, BUT the market (or majority of people investing in our financial markets) could say (at a particular window of time) to hell with that — we are bullish because the economic weakness will entail government support. Which is what has just been happening now with the recently released GDP of 6.9 in China as well as lack of inflation and so many other slowdown on the economy in EU area countries equals more stimulus / interest rate cuts. (Article here) Anyway, we must also note this with the seemingly resilient US economy, the recent talk from the Fed officials is that the rate hike has to happen in 2015 — which could send the market sliding again — the US Fed (unlike the Chinese govt) has a schedule of these interest-rate setting meetings for the year and the next one is Oct 28 and the GDP is announced the next day! If you attend my workshops, I talk about prediction, so at this point all I can say is manage the risks of strong market moves. No rate cut this October might spur a rally – of a few hours — just like what happened in September. (As a popular song goes… don’t believe me, just watch!).

I am thinking of an Options strategy that will work with a big move in either direction — you say, there is such a thing?! Yes! And I am happy to announce my upcoming workshops “Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop and US Investing Workshop” back to back on Nov 21 and a webinar series the week after which you can all access in the comfort of your homes. Email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com for registration.

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I’ve been watching the last few up days with a side eye. That seemingly endless “rally” got to hit ceiling I thought. Surely, someone. something, sometime, “reality” will sink in. I got to be honest I was really really tempted to get in also, high as it was. The talk of “low interest rates” is certainly seductive but it’s getting to high to handle. Dr. Tharp and team had been coming out with their market analysis — that this is a bear market we are having. I decided to wait for the confirmation of where the prices will go next, because I thought it should already be heading south with that mixed result and otherwise teeny tiny increase in the indices. (These are signs of market reversals) Busy exam days are upon me so I decided, if I will get in, I will just get past the first exam day which is usually the hardest for my language-challenged kids. Plus some market data. Today’s China data (again) was another weak result. 20% less shipment to China in dollar terms. That’s a heavy load sinking stocks once again.

This week we are going to be kicking off the earnings season in the US. Plenty of reason to see wild swings again since we had the last 3 months of “bad news”. Yeah, I am not optimistic about the results, but that’s another ingredient to be thrown in the pot of interest rates, so we will have to see how the earnings and economic / jobs reports play out = continued volatility.

I will be presenting another round of webinars and workshop mid-November for staying profitable and sane during this wild market swings. If you are an investor who likes to invest for the long-term, this workshop is for you! Email charmel@highheeledtraders.com to register your interest. I will be posting about the free webinars here in a while. Be wise out there.

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Had Wi-Fi woes again so sorry I wasn’t able to update the blog. Catching up … it seemed that there is again a well-spring of hope regarding the (delay) in the rate rise in the US yet again. From my previous posts, you can tell I am bearish and my Wi-Fi was down so yes I am standing back from all the “rallies” and just looking at the opportunity for the downward move (if you notice, the falls are bigger, so, I just think they are a better risk 🙂

BUT … I wouldn’t want to ruin the party and say don’t buy it. People could get on it with a calculated Initial Risk (Dr Tharp calls this 1R) and make sure the reward is three times this risk (3R). See what happens with this:
Trade 1 – -1R Loss
Trade 2 – -1R Loss
Trade 3 – +3R Gain
Trade 4 – -1R Loss
Trade 5 – -1R Loss
Trade 6 – +3R Gain
Trade 7 – -1R Loss
Trade 8 – +3R Gain
Trade 9 – -1R Loss
Trade 10- +3R Gain
TOTAL = Loss of 6R (6x -1R)
Gains of 12R (4x 3R)
Over 10 trades, each costing you 1R, you have a net winning position of 2R (12R gain minus 10 trades of 1R). That’s still 20%.

In the above example, you lose 6 out of 10 times but keep the loss small (within 1R) and win only 4 times with 3R gains, you make 20% profit. We can do better than this of course but say for this very volatile market, we make 20% profit CONSISTENTLY, this is still a very good result.
If you do this monthly, you will be phenomenal with 240% performance
If you do this quarterly, you will be great with 80% performance
If you do this semi-annually, you will be above average with 40% performance
George Soros is a rock star trader at 30% per year performance consistently for decades.

I am going to have my last workshop for the year in Mid-November this is the highly popular Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop that had people keep coming back to in order to learn how to do the business right! This is set for November 14 back to back with US Investing Workshop. Register early to avoid missing out on these 2 important workshops that will help you remain profitable and comfortable in this volatile market! Email us at charmel@highheeledtraders.com.

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Apologies to all waiting to hear from me, our internet was down at home so I couldn’t update the blog. Anyway, we’ve gone past what I kept reading as a “horrible” quarter and I welcome you to OctoBear. Yeah, sorry, because as much as I would want to be happy we got a new quarter, we have to look at what’s changed so that we can definitely say we are out of trouble.

OK so looking around, we still have
!. US rate hike — still a possibility for October they said. The meeting is scheduled towards the end of the month.
2. China – growth issues and stockmarket valuation issues – still the same, if not worse (for growth).
3. Deflation — it is getting more and more evident, EU registered negative inflation. That’s certainly to watch out for – as it might affect companies’ profits.

And last week, we saw a new issue crop up because of the slowing growth in China which is ,,,, wait for it,,,, credit-risk from all those commodities companies who all borrowed for their mining ventures.

And hmmm Russia, started airstrikes in Syria yesterday. (Next door neighbour to Iran, Iraq, Saudi …. you got to check the world map! Those skirmishes might escalate (we don’t know Putin’s plan do we?) and that affects oil prices.

There are still certainly opportunities in this bear market — so please check out the Newsletter from Dr. Van Tharp.

http://newsletter.vantharp.com/public/?q=preview_message&fn=Link&t=1&ssid=10920&id=gjfipvpi9ktxf0bov976r3wu1shwo&id2=de8smp12kktw3o5fjzppqg7x9ya7d&subscriber_id=brtdktilupymuipetajjrixhqfpibok&delivery_id=aivmmmroqninheliveogqwcfooeubli&messageversion_id=buddrmmnzkvunqkoqasbuvvdmwurbpj&tid=3.Kqg.BBpJYA.EBbN.AdXI-Q..AjevrA.b..l.A3BP.a.Vgwl5g.Vgwl5g.atyt_g

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The Fed kept interest rates on hold. Thanks for listening to me! 🙂 Ah, low-interest rates, the cause for joy for investors. However, that proves to be shortlived. The gains gave way to losses even before the Fed Chair finished the press conference. Perhaps because people realize, even the Fed is bearish on global growth and there is nothing it can do to solve that problem. Well maybe they can, but they won’t. I’m talking more “stimulus” (like what every other govt is doing) but we’re not going there. It’s not up to the US to “stimulate” what needs stimulating. The Fed can just keep things humming along with the current interest rate environment. Thus, it’s the citizens who have the solemn obligation to do their part and keep shopping. (Oh what fun!) Yes, keep consuming, and hopefully it keeps the economy from falling.
We discuss how this idea works in our workshop and webinar series “Low-Risk High-Reward Investing” so if tips are not enough for you, and you actually be in the know what’s bound to happen, email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com to register.

So the Fed said, every month the rate rise is on the cards. That means more ups and downs, and the investor has to be trained in how to spot the opportunities worth taking, and managing risks. That’s why I am happy to let you know of my workshop filled with timely, specific and actionable ideas in investing in the current volatile market.

Here again is information about our workshop :

Workshop: Low-Risk High-Reward Investing

Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop
Sept 19, 830am
2/F Ortigas Bldg, Ortigas Ave.
Cor. Meralco Ave. Pasig City
Parking at the back of building onsite / along Sapphire Road

The webinar series will be coming soon so stay tuned.
See you at the workshop!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/fed-angst-gives-stock-traders-more-reason-to-doubt-profit-bounce

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