US Presidential Election — yes we have to have this talk. I admit to little knowledge on politics, I shall just state here some observations.
OK, so after the debate which was widely reported to be “won” by Clinton, the stockmarket had a positive sentiment on it and rallied the next day. Some say it is a “relief” rally because the more candidate with the more predictable policy on trade gained advantage. You also have currencies like the Mexican peso strengthening because Trump is pushing for some things that Mexicans got to be worried about jobs getting to their shores.
But wait! We have to think a bit how the candidates can affect investment sectors:
1. Healthcare – remember Clinton’s tweet about meds getting too expensive? That sector can get whipped long and hard.
2. Technology — Trump has a “jobs for Americans” battlecry and most tech companies actually use a lot of foreign-born skilled persons. This will surely be a change on how they do their staffing so expect some “disruption” in this sector.
3. Consumer stocks — Trump positions himself for job creation for locals, so it is reasonable to expect some bump in consumer stocks if he does make this a priority.
4. Defense stocks — Trump might project aggression, but he doesn’t like that US fights other countries’ wars. (So the US won’t spend, but could they still sell?). Republicans do however like to beef up their military assets, so this could be a winning investment under Trump.
5. Banking / finance stocks — possibly independent of the policies of both candidates, this sector can get a boost from any interest-rate increase (because it attracts more depositors).