High Heeled Traders
  • Contact email: charmel@highheeledtraders.com

Girl Power Trading

I was invited for an interview recently by Greek Journalist Stav Dimitropoulous to lend my voice about women traders, given the new research on hormonal differences between men and women traders conducted by “Department of Economics at the University of Leicester which now confirms that having more female traders in the markets will indeed save the world from many and extreme stock market crashes—and this time physiological evidence is used to back claims up”.

Read about it in this article “The Battle of Hormones : “Men and Women Trade Differently” in Continnect “Connecting continents… connecting women” Link here or go to this link:

http://www.continnect.com/articles/Article1-Apr16/

Awesome article and agree with everything (except maybe the one about being “posh”, but I try… hehehe).

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Why We Need Pink Cars

April 5, 2016

Recent market rally grinding to a halt with oil going back down again to $35 levels. Also saw an article when we see the biggest producer Saudi Arabia preparing for post-oil economy, this to me means only one thing. Oil is going down for real. Article here .

It’s not all bad news however, this means their dependency on oil being lessened will push them to grow other parts of the economy which will advance other industries or professions. Maybe we will see more women becoming more engaged to be a contributor to their economy, much like what other countries have been doing to empower half their population. Maybe when they let their women drive we will see more pink cars going about . The CIA World Factbook lists the following age structure for Saudi Arabia:

15-24 years: 19.11% (male 2,839,161/female 2,463,216)

25-54 years: 45.9% (male 7,244,386/female 5,495,284)

Perhaps then with the half of the 65% of the population being able to drive, voila! an increase of at least 20% in oil demand ! Certainly more revenue for the government, but wait, it does not stop there, we can see more economic activity with the freer movement of Saudi ladies,,,, think, more roadtrips to interesting places, souvenirs being sold, more school activities where they can bring children, more shopping malls :) the possibilities are endless!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-04-04/why-oil-and-stocks-are-diverging

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Apologies for the absence here in the blog, some wifi issues and then I had to go on a little trip as well with some friends to the highlands and feasted on strawberries.

Since it was nearing the end of quarter, I actually had very passive positions with Call Bear spread options on FB expecting that the stocks were going down given the run up we had the last weeks, and the price moves were starting to just consolidate, there were some Fed officials too saying it’s time we move up rates, but all those talk of rate rise were silenced with US Fed Chair ( I might start call her Mama Yellen ) giving a dovish statement the other day that low rates are especially warranted. It’s not the best situation because the “global weakness” is not a thing to be happy about, but I love that it gives clarity … for a few weeks at least! hehehe

So temptations are plenty. Risk is back on again since the central bankers moved to stimulate economies as I’ve said they are wont to do. We saw a lot of technology stocks shoot up, FB is nearing its all-time high yesterday at 16.99 before it dropped off in what seems to be profit-taking. Apple has also recovered nicely as well as AMZN roaring with the consumer discretionary sector. All those sectors that benefit from low interest rates are tempting for sure. I thought the “sentiment” is bubbling over too much, but hey, can’t do anything but ride sentiment.

But here I also have to give a reason for pause. It’s end of the quarter and a new one rolling in, we might see more selling due to profit-taking. China might also roll in with economic reports with some bad numbers again (shhhhhh not too loud) and a selloff can just happen again. Remembering those early January reports still gives me the creeps! And while there has been some small policy changes and perhaps pronouncements about supporting growth, we haven’t really seen anything BIG to come out from them. The old strategies are still in play. Note that there hasn’t been a rate cut from China, which could work both ways — sending the currency down OR supporting the risk sentiment. Whatever you believe the market will take, make sure your positions are well within your risk.

I will also be having my workshops again April 23rd and May 14th.
With the market resuming its uptrend in the last weeks, we have to know when to take profits
and manage fear and greed. Our Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop will train you to
make effective decisions based on proven systems, understand the market and manage risks.
More about the workshop details and content in this link:

http://highheeledtraders.com/2015/11/20/current-workshops/

Register at charmel@highheeledtraders.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/asian-stock-futures-rise-amid-dovish-fed-while-oil-resumes-drop

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Investing is Like Shopping for Shoes! My best investing ideas and more at the Women’s Prosperity Summit a FREE online event by women, for women happening March 18-20. Register now!

THROW open the doors to success with talks from 18 awesome women speakers talking about having a vibrant life, stocks investing, content marketing, and vehicles for income creation as well as many other ways to empower ourselves.

Here’s the Facebook Page for more details :

https://www.facebook.com/Womens-Prosperity-Summit-951046108322883/

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Today is the day! So exciting, because there is finally going to be some clarity about the “stimulus” that’s going to be unveiled by the European Central Bank. There was a long buildup to this day, since the Chair Mario Draghi announced such stumulus back in January when the selloff was in full swing. There was no hint of how much, but investors were nonetheless pacified that help is on the way. I am trying to recall whether the ECB has a history of really giving generous support to investors and I think it’s a mixed bag. Here’s some handy articles dug up by Google .

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-cuts-deposit-rate-draghi-to-announce-further-measures-1449147451

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-the-ecb-disappointed-markets-as-it-expanded-stimulus-2015-12-03

– ECB stimulus booed by investors last December. (Then the following month Jan 2016 – we had the special announcement)

So because I just wasn’t oozing with confidence about the ECB move, I went snoozing. Yes, no positions. I had a feeling the market could go up anticipating the stimulus, but especially from last night, it was quite volatile. Calculating my risks, I decided it is just better to wait for the decision and trade on the confirmed direction of the market — because the thing is, the stimulus is sure to be given, but it remains to be seen how strong it will be. I think ECB will have a bias for a stronger stimulus since their last stimulus program was announced (Jan 2015), there is no significant growth achieved. Is there? I haven’t noticed :) The last program indicated 60Billion Euros per month — how big does this new one need to be? Another 60 Billion? So even that “matching amount” may not be enough. And then there’s the question — if it is so high, are the risks so great? Does the low of price of oil and China’s much slower growth pose risks bigtime?

We shall see.

—————
Related Articles

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-22/draghi-repeating-ecb-history-primes-euro-area-for-fresh-stimulus

“There’s very strong expectations that we’re going to see further stimulus from the ECB, and the real question is how strong that stimulus will be,” said Chris Green, an Auckland-based strategist at First NZ Capital Group Ltd., a brokerage and wealth management firm. “We’re seeing a more supportive environment for risk assets going forward.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-09/asian-equities-set-to-rebound-with-aussie-kiwi-down-on-rate-cut

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Sloth Growth

March 8, 2016

I was right, in my last post last Friday “Braking Bulls” I said the trend going up is soon to slow down. There is no secret formula. What we saw were sharp declines then an opportunity for bargain hunting, but after the good run, it has to catch its breath. I also noted we have a new month (March) which had the previous months reporting coming in, and with a global stockmarket that bad, lackluster earnings, where are we getting the growth ? “Japan’s economy contracted an annualized 1.1 percent last quarter… China’s exports tumbled 25.4 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms in February as imports fell for the 16th month in a row.”

It’s going to be a wild ride indeed. We can’t go full on selling again though. It may be a quiet week in the US market but come March 10th the European Central Bank is expected to announce an expansion of stimulus. That’s going to be a possible move up, before the US Federal Reserve central bankers announce their own policy — which at this point is a toss-up. There were recent Fed official’s statement — Mr. Fischer says that inflation is accelerating (frankly he’s always been one of those wanting a rate hike!). “Fed Governor Lael Brainard countering that the Fed should not move until inflation proves its “persistence.”

I had a workshop last Saturday and it was a very interesting group, I was discussing how I use Options to create an income so that even in this volatile environment we are able to make profits. We use a strategy called Covered Calls using slightly out of the money Calls and I recommend it so the time value expiry allows us to make money on the upside and still have a protection on the downside. Next workshop mid-April so register your interest at charmel@highheeledtraders.com

If you care to be on this wild ride, I continue to just recommend having small positions, taking profits quickly in this volatile environment.

Enjoy this clip from Zootopia!

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0W925Y

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKCN0WA09

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-gdp-idUSKCN0WA0PI

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/asian-stock-futures-signal-more-gains-amid-iron-ore-oil-surges

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/goldman-sachs-dismisses-metals-rally-with-call-to-short-copper

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Braking Bulls

March 4, 2016

(Updates below for Mar 7)
It’s been a fun few weeks since we had that “OMG” days of market falls. As I’ve mentioned here in the blog, market will recover as we see signs that governments will be supporting their economies to grow and ward off deflation. The quarter is down to the last month though, so given earnings already reported the seasonal tendency for profit-taking will kick in. I would be taking less bullish position, maybe some small ones and if you read around that the trading volumes are getting thinner, it means there are less participants pushing up prices. The Chinese government’s 5 year plan will likely be out next week. Then there is one other big moment for government stimulus announcements which will happen on March 16-17 – the US Fed would be raising rates or not.

There is still some optimism in the air, definitely need to be enjoyed. I note China’s credit rating has been cut — a sign of weakness. But beware the issues still persisting and reversal could happen fairly quickly.

– China’s Growth Policies —
(Update Mar 7)

OK now it’s official, China is slowing down, more than what we already know. The government, for the first time has given a “range target” for growth which is 6.5 to 7% and the stimulus so-far announced (nothing earth-shaking it seems) has not been given the seal of approval by investors.

Apart from China we will be looking at ECB stimulus announcement this week. Nothing to be excited about according to news articles because “You have the ECB policy which is generally going to be cutting rates, expanding QE and that tends to weaken the euro”. The jury is still out about cutting rates to negative and the recent run in oil prices is going to put some price / inflation pressures so there is a need for careful decision-making here.

Add to that some Fed officials are going to be making public speeches this week, Stanley Fischer US Fed Vice-Chair, and whatever he says will definitely be weighed against a rate cut becoming a possibility.

So plenty of volatility expected, I think we will have braking bulls this week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-06/aussie-slips-after-china-growth-goal-cut-asia-futures-tip-gains

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-07/china-s-foreign-reserves-slow-decline-as-currency-stabilizes

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Hopeful

February 27, 2016

I rarely post on a weekend — most of the week I am busy with the kids, doing paperwork and research and some other projects. A girl needs to have some fun! I need to give time to protect myself from stress, get healthy and have fun so that it doesn’t take away focus on my trading when I need to. Imagine if you’re too busy and running on high energy all the time, ideas and numbers on your head all the time, the stress will get higher and higher and that’s going to affect how you think, how you make decisions. So weekends are for me (and I suggest for you) to chill, and have fun!

Anyway, I am writing this post to comment a bit on last night’s session. US GDP came out at 1% and G20 ministers financial discussions came into play. The market has been on this uptrend upbeat mood the last few days but I think last night investors have reached the point of profit-taking. The earnings season also just finished and well, the results have been so-so. No surprises there. So the next month being the end of the quarter is going to continue to be volatile, perhaps not as “bad” as the start of the quarter, but you need to be prepared to take your profits, vigilant and watch the market. News came out that it’s one of the thinnest trading days, that speaks volumes :) not a lot of investors are “hopeful”.

My daughter has a favorite song these days, it’s called “Hopeful”. I don’t want to carry around this “hopeful” emotion on the days I am trading because it could affect how I trade. But I believe a “hopeful” emotion is still a helpful one, so that you and I can go on doing the right thing, moving forward. A hopeful weekend for you all!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/budding-joy-over-u-s-stocks-rebound-marred-by-drop-in-trading

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Growth by Govs

February 26, 2016

Today United States GDP is going to be reported, so I did nothing big yesterday. Lately, wild swings have been in fashion so I decided that, this one is likely to follow the pattern. I am going to take the lower risk investment and just follow the market. You can see on the pricing of stock options that they are expensive, that they are expected to have really big swings. For example Facebook as of last night, with 2 nights to go before the week expires still carries a high premium. It is also unclear if this report if it turns out to be “good” will also be well-received. Investors are wary of “too strong” growth pushing up interest rates, but weak growth is also going to be bad news given the growth concerns elsewhere. IMF still expects the world to grow — although I read the article, front, back, middle and didn’t see which area is supposed to grow. MAYBE,,,, well, it’s tricky, the growth could just come from everyone, although in low-numbers,,,, 2% here, 3% there…. they said China will do 6% … Enough to chug along, keep interest rates low.

G20 met up today in Shanghai and I read briefly Germany and IMF wants growth on the rise, but through structural reforms (making people consume more and do more work for each other in local services) and kinda avoiding the full-on-fiscal stimulus strategy. Article here. Sounds good — grow your own legs, but don’t topple the balance (like what could happen with currency wars and capital outflows that happens in China). Governments have a responsibility to make their economies grow and though there have been missteps (need to remember the juicy details?!) Let’s hope these new policies all works out.

At our last workshop we discussed the short to medium-term market recovery, don’t miss out on the gains with my next workshop happening March 5. Here are the topics in this link!

http://highheeledtraders.com/2015/11/20/current-workshops/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/imf-s-lagarde-still-sees-growth-even-amid-growing-global-risks

————————-
Pay women more if you want to reduce povertyFont size: A | A | A
1:18 AM ET 2/25/16 | MarketWatch
By Jillian Berman

Dramatically reducing poverty could be as simple as paying women the same amount of money as men. There’s one problem: Taking that step isn’t all that simple.

If working women were paid the same amount as their male counterparts living in the same place, working the same hours, with the same education, their poverty rate would drop by more than half in 28 states, according to an analysis (http://www.statusofwomendata.org) released Thursday by the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, a think tank focused on women’s economic issues. To reach their conclusion, researchers analyzed government data to determine how much women would make if they got the same return on their resources — education, age, location etc. — as men. Then they calculated whether that added income would lift those women out of poverty.

Eliminating the gap in pay between working men and women would not only benefit the women making less, but it would help the families they support and the economy overall as well, said Heidi Hartmann, the president of IWPR. Closing the gender pay gap in every state would boost the U.S. economy by $482 billion, IWPR found.

“The low pay of women due to discrimination is a drag on the entire economy,” Hartmann said.

But unfortunately achieving equal pay for women is no easy task. Women make less money than men (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gender-wage-gap-narrows-by-just-1-cent-2015-09-16) on average for a variety of reasons, Hartmann notes. They’re less likely to work in high-paying fields even and, when they do work in those sectors, they’re less likely to work at higher-paying firms or move up the corporate ladder. And then of course there are cases of outright discrimination where women are making less than men doing the same job.

“Change is required on so many levels, but each of those levels can be addressed,” Hartmann said. She noted that advocates have made some progress since the gender wage gap first began receiving national attention in the 1960s and there is hope the pace of change could speed up, thanks to new initiatives. For example, President Barack Obama issued an executive order earlier this year (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/29/us/politics/obama-moves-to-expand-rules-aimed-at-closing-gender-pay-gap.html) requiring that companies with more than 100 workers to report to the government what they pay workers by race and sex.

-Jillian Berman; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

> Dow Jones Newswires

February 25, 2016 01:18 ET (06:18 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/biggest-wave-yet-of-u-s-oil-defaults-looms-as-bust-intensifies

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Follow Every Rainbow

February 24, 2016

It was fun while it lasted. As the market recovery has been going on, it is certainly not a smooth ride. There are bumps and jumps — yesterday the market shot up. Today, the market is in the mood to sell. Till yesterday, we could be forgiven to think that this market recovery is going to continue on a straight path. But as could be observed, the market was hitting resistance levels and you know that buyers are not pushing the prices up anymore — time to take profits.

OK so what does this mean for all of us? Remember the bull run is over. We are now in a bear market — in the US it has not fallen as a whole but a lot of stocks had already dipped by 20% from highest high which is the definition of bear market. There is no one trend also — the market is volatile. So if you position yourself and follow a trend – you need to be ready to take the profits quickly. If you are thinking a reversal is going to happen “anytime” – be patient and take that reversal only when following a confirmed move. Yes, follow every rainbow…

Too hard? Don’t be discouraged. We are allowed to be a little confused, however if we just check the data, it gets easier. We teach this in our workshops — but the general principle is —
1. Check the market direction
2. Decide on the strategy that works in this market type
3. Find the stocks that follow the market direction and yields an acceptable return on the strategy you apply.

OK so in real life – we check the market – we are in a Bear – volatile market. That means the major direction is going down. For this market – our strategy could be to buy only the safest stocks that people don’t want to sell (for the dividends, growing market share etc) at the Support level as much as possible. Or if “shorting strategies” are available to you, to sell the weak stocks and profit on the downside. We discuss the details in our workshops – the next events are on March 5.

Check out the topics here http://highheeledtraders.com/2015/11/20/current-workshops/

and you can register with me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/sovereign-wealth-funds-seen-selling-404-billion-of-equities

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