High Heeled Traders
  • Contact email: charmel@highheeledtraders.com

Girl Power Trading

Had a good sleep last night. Everything was feeling positive since there was no “red market” day over in China, but before the market opened in the US, Europe was awake and had the European Central Bank Chair Mario Draghi’s declaring a willingness to expand its QE program because of the global slowdown, and admitted, that there is going to be “negative inflation.” Found it really weird, why didn’t he just say there’s going to be – DEFLATION. I guess he’s trying a little tenderness – saying the word will spook the hell out of everybody.

So I was there watching — not feeling as confident even with the major indices up over 100 points – market signals were all over the place — first you see that confidence in the pre-market price levels jumped from the day before, and start to go down before the opening, after the ECB announces the expanded QE. The indices, all those individual stocks I like to watch like AAPL, FB, GILD were up and down so much (with my own measure of volatility), I decided, the market is hard to get any solid footing and low-risk enough, so, I went to bed.

So what has been happening ? You can say there is some confusion, because “stimulus’ or expansion is always a good thing, on the other hand, the question here is WHY we are stimulating the economy, again, and WHY the first one hasn’t succeeded. They’ve been making mistakes about the growth figures before, who can be sure they are not making any more (mistakes). (Just want to make sure I am very clear on this hahaha).

Well, the governments don’t like to paint a bad picture, it’s their job. But it’s our job to protect our investments so, I hope you get the knowledge I share in here and look after your investments.

Nevertheless, there are opportunities for the people in the know.
So with all this volatility, it is all the more important to know how to protect those profits, find the opportunities.
Understand the market conditions and the moves happening. I discuss actionable and proven ideas in my
Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop / Webinar series.
Sept 19, 830am
2/F Ortigas Building Conference Room
Ortigas Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila
Philippines.

The webinar version will be available to accommodate my audience in different parts of the world.
Will announce the schedule next week!
Enjoy!

—————————

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-04/ubs-cuts-hong-kong-stock-target-25-as-black-sky-becomes-reality

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-02/these-are-a-few-of-the-stock-charts-that-spook-louise-yamada

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-03/u-s-stock-index-futures-climb-to-track-european-shares-higher

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Bear Months

September 3, 2015

The IMF finally got around to what I’ve been saying for a while, China is weakening and sure will drag the global economy. Canada just had 2 quarters of contraction – which technically means they are in Recession. Australia registered a teeny-tiny increase in GDP a .2% increase. Brazil and Russia have been sad stories for a while due to the commodities (iron ore and oil) falling off a cliff since last year. IMF report here.

China is on holiday today and bargain hunters have started to load up on the oversold stocks yesterday, and can potentially continue till there is another reason to sell. Like, next week when China opens again, nobody knows for sure when, so like what I’ve been saying to people keep tight watch of your holdings or be prepared with hedging strategy. I had a position for AAPL falling last Monday and it was hugely profitable Tuesday, my mistake is I didn’t wake up for the close to take the profit so by Wednesday, I had to give up some profit since it went back up in anticipation of the China holiday “buying spree” by the Chinese govt agency. Still, it gives me confidence that I am “one” with the market moves. Yesterday was a huge move once again, can you believe how volatile the market is, it’s still a few days away from the US Fed meeting, so hmmm, get used to it.

Back to the US Fed rate rise, my fearless forecast is that they won’t raise rates – yet. A lot of rock star investors / traders are saying the Fed can’t hike in this kind of market uncertainty, but I know for sure that once they raise rates, US dollar will rise, their neighbour Canada – already in recession will grow weaker (US exports is at 19% to Canada accdg to the CIA Factbook) and that can’t be good for BOTH of them. So,,,, those job gains which they said is the primary basis for their rate rise is going to lose its importance. The wage gains can hardly be felt (I’m missing the Big Mac Index). Besides, with the number of “undocumented migrants” they have (who presumably are not in the “official” list because they don’t claim for jobless benefits anyway), the REAL unemployment is still high at 23%. (Where did I get that figure – google it)

So anyway, with the temporary respite from the interest rate increase — these “ber” months the market is going to be pressured by the falling commodities, weakening economies (because, answer this – where is the growth coming from?), currency wars and watch for it, China. The valuation remains stretched and the natural forces of the market will be unstoppable.

I discussed all this in detail in the webinar last week “Is it time to buy”. Yesterday I had a repeat scheduled of at 8pm – which is what I’ve scheduled in my Facebook posts but there was a confusion because in the webinar platform I scheduled it for Sept 1, so sorry all along I thought I had it for Wednesday, but anyway, I will be sending out the link to the video recording to all who registered. Apologies for any inconvenience caused.

So with all this volatility, it is all the more important to know how to protect those profits, find the opportunities.
Understand the market conditions and the moves happening. I discuss actionable and proven ideas in my
Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop / Webinar series.
Sept 19, 830am
2/F Ortigas Building Conference Room
Ortigas Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila
Philippines.

The webinar version will be available to accommodate my audience in different parts of the world.
I will announce the schedule next week.
Meantime, enjoy the China restday paydays. Here’s Septembear.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-02/china-stock-futures-drop-before-holiday-on-state-support-concern

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/02/this-is-a-very-real-bear-market-gartman.html

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

UPDATE : China manufacturing contracts. Germany unemployment down. You see here that Germany benefitting from “cheaper goods” from weak euro and seriously encroaching on China’s export markets.

I don’t want to immediately write-off China, but here’s the thing, other countries with weak currencies (euro and yen) and better quality goods are so competitive AND they are just not doing the right thing at all when it comes to what they should be doing for their long-term economic growth and prosperity. I thought before that with the kind of financial muscle they have, like owning the most amount of US Treasuries at 1.4 Trillion dollars that they can just go from strength to strength. But it is easy to make mistakes — like selling assets so they can spend the money on things that go down in value. It’s been widely reported that they are supporting the already expensive stockmarket. Only for the natural consequences of the market to pull it down. There are reports but let’s say they spent $20 Billion for stockmarket rescue last week alone, that’s definitely not going to last very long. And a question just in time for this week’s military parade — how will those fancy guns and firepower help the environmental, social and human development needed for growth?

United States — ahh the economy is the world’s largest and showing promise at growth so it still has a strong pull as far making money is concerned. However, rate cut looming poses risk in investments (USD strengthening) plus of course many of the biggest companies has exposure to slow-growth countries like Japan and EU, China are causes for concern. But then again, there is always attraction for companies with strong domestic focus and dividend plays.

Bloomberg article by Mr Pesek just confirmed what I said / wrote about as the next best investment destination – Philippines and accdg to him, South Korea are the big winners from the China slowdown. No more BRICS. Coin a new acronym, quick!
How about SoKorPhilUS? PhilSoKUS? SKUP?

I posted a video that the Philippines can even surpass China’s growth. I was in the Invest ASEAN event organized by Maybank Kim Eng (Malaysian bank now expanding aggressively in the Philippines — see what I mean?!) Check it here.

Now just a quick list why Philippines is the best investment destination post-China :
(Facts and figures from CIA World Factbook)
Philippines https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/rp.html
South Korea https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html

1. More income earning potential of the unstoppable USD –
a) Tourism – value-for-money destination featuring natural wonders (Perfect cone volcano), biodiversity (No.1 in the world), history and art from centuries of Spanish rule, American and Japanese occupations, fresh food, vibrant city life and rural fiestas and idyllic islands and beaches!

English-widely spoken attracting travellers from US / Western countries 4-5 Million migrants that recurringly visit their families and most of them area also bringing their foreigner friends.

Environmentally — Philippines also has a more welcoming environment, enjoying tropical / warm weather year-round.

c) Remittances – the overseas workers and migrants (10Million worldwide and high concentration in US / OECD countries)
Services / Outsourcing industry – the value proposition and talent pool is even attracting more and more clients. Major global banks like Citibank, JP Morgan has call centers and back offices in Manila.

2. Geopolitics –

a) Philippines – part of ASEAN block with a market of 600Million people, important strategic partner of the US Military vs China
South Korea – got a pesky neighbour with nuclear arms

Maybe even as a blessing in disguise, Philippines has a tepid relationship (resulting to low level of investments from China) because of territorial disputes. China, thousands of miles away is claiming territories within the 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone as provided by international agreements.

http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part5.htm

3. Demographics -

Philippines is 100M, South Korea is 50M – Philippines has double the size of the population translating to bigger market / workforce also.

Philippines also has a younger more energetic workforce with median age 23.5 vs Korea’s 40.2 and rapidly aging population with .14% growth rate

Education – American-style education has many Filipino professionals reaping relatively easy skill accreditation even with countries with the most stringent requirements like Engineers for many Middle East countries, Health professionals (Doctors, Nurses, Medical Technologists), Information Technology jobs (programmers) in the US, UK, Australia, Canada. The Philippines are also getting more and more business processing / knowledge processing jobs, many foreigners even US-based children of Filipino migrants there, have been coming to the Philippines to get their professional education here because it is inexpensive and high-quality.

For decades, South Koreans have been coming to the Philippines to study English. More Koreans are also living and conducting business in the Philippines.

Migration – while many Filipinos migrate out to work and live abroad, Filipinos continually come back to their motherland. Many have also inter-married to other nationals most of whom prefer living / retiring in the Philippines. Cebu, Dumaguete, Baguio. Manila and many rural areas have multi-racial families providing a dynamic linkage (and importantly the USD remittances ) to the Philippines from other OECD economies.

South Korea registers 0 migrants per 1000 population.

——————–

The Philippines’ economy, as part of the global financial world is not selloff proof, but its economy is not in danger of being dragged down by commodity exports like what’s happening to Canada, OPEC countries, Brazil and Australia. Despite having an abundance of natural resources due to its geographical location / Pacific Ring of Fire — the Philippines is not a big commodity producer that drags down the slowing demand of gold / copper / oil.

As an end note, with the election year coming, there will be further “stimulus” from the government. It doesn’t matter who gets elected. Most of the politicians are corrupt. It’s not the government but the people, resilient and self-reliant who make the Philippine economy go from strength to strength..

Mr. Pesek’s article

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-30/two-big-winners-from-china-s-big-slowdown

A sneak peek about the Philippines
2015 Tourism campaign

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Weekends are usually R and R for me, but it’s been raining outside and I just have to review the events this week! I’ve been talking about volatility and telling my trading community some of the things to expect. Here’s a very interesting discussion by Bank of
America head of global rates and currency research backing up my ideas on the what lies ahead … more volatility, China currency devaluation, deflation and possibly Fed non-action. Pay attention to him talking about “Risk parity” – I had to play it a couple of times to understand it hahaha. So go ahead, grab some chocolate, I had the bittersweet drink — and read on.

Chinese government selling US Treasuries to raise funds to support their own currency (yuan / renminbi) is happening, so when stocks are falling, US Treasuries are supposed to go up, BUT the biggest holder of the US Treasuries are selling, driving the prices down too. And so, “risk parity investors” take RISK OFF on everything.

This strategy of selling US Treasuries, while the Chinese holds US$1.48 Trillion in value … but using 40 Billion a month to “invest” in the stockmarket is not going to last long, and presumably, they won’t want to use it all on this stock intervention anyway, given that it was cited that it does not have a big effect on the Chinese economy overall.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/bofaml-s-woo-explains-how-china-was-behind-one-of-this-week-s-most-extraordinary-market-developments

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/what-chinas-treasury-liquidation-means-1-trillion-qe-reverse

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Don’t Rock The Boat

August 29, 2015

Right again…. as I was saying in the previous posts and the free webinar we had the other day, with the Chinese govt stimulating their economy but US growth that may push the rate hike,,,, I don’t know if it’s any good to be in the market for “medium-term and long-term” investors. Those who are bargain-hunting better be actively monitoring the market because the prices can go downhill fast. Look at last night’s session …

It’s because there were US Fed officials are saying the interest rate hike is still in the cards. Given that:
US GDP grew 3.7% annual rate, beating consensus
Jobless claims dropped
– and you know the jobs data is what the Fed is watching.

So watch for signs of economic strength that will rock the boat.

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

China is the single reason why stockmarkets are falling. Yes, even if the US economy is growing, and EU economies are benefitting from record stimulus. I talk about it all the time in my Low-Risk High-Reward Investing workshop. There are market movers that we have to know about. See, the world is interconnected like never before. Money travels in the click of a button and without borders. Let me give you a backgrounder — Chinese government officials have been on a mission to restructure the economy and “spreading the wealth” through social programs, so they say, the 10% per year growth is gone and will be replaced by a target of 7%. One would think, that it would follow that there would be less demand for commodities like iron ore, copper, coal, oil, that benefitted from the government-funded infrastructure projects. Some say the corruption crackdown which made luxury goods “a must” are hurting consumer buying. Also, China’s exports are being sent to countries that have been in recession or slow growth > Japan, EU, United States (which, even this year had a negative quarter!). However, China’s stockmarket was rallying until June this year, fuelled by debt and perhaps the new investors’ enthusiasm for stock investment given that real estate, the more traditional investment hit a wall, and this created another bubble which has been unravelling since. So if you want to know why the markets have been falling – let’s go back to what I’ve just said and hinted last few blog posts — there was a disconnect and maybe the natural or market forces are in the process of rebalancing. Although Chinese government is fighting this by propping up the already expensive stockmarket. Go figure.

So last night, we got the rate cut. I won’t blame investors if they get into investments and ride “good news” then get the hell out for fear of further slowdown. So as mentioned in my Facebook page HighHeeledTraders.com
the growth or slowdown in China is not yet fully understood. The rate cut was a mere 25 percent. Too little, too late and frankly, with the problems they are facing, not enough.

So people are asking, which countries are least affected by China and are experiencing high growth? Major markets like India, Philippines, Thailand who have limited / least reliance on commodity exports to China’s manufacturing industry, have consumer-driven economies are key. Add to that, little to no geopolitical issues (so Turkey will not make it to this list as it is very close to the Syria-ISIS hotbed)

I posted a video yesterday here about the areas where you could invest your hard-earned money and an article from Bloomberg appearing today (here) echoing my claim on where the safest (and best) investment destinations are because they are not dependent on China and are growing at the top rates in the world.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/safest-emerging-stocks-in-markets-with-least-trade-ties-to-china

And if you want to know “Is it time to buy” or as a long-term investor with holdings in the red, is it time to cut losses and wait to buy at the bottom – here’s my webinar for you!

Title: Is it Time to Invest or Will the Market Slide Again?

Description: Bargain hunters are happy seeing stock prices fall, but is it time to buy again or will the market slide again? This webinar will help you determine the risks in the current market, and start you off to creating a Low-Risk High-Reward Investment Strategy.

Date & Time: Thu, Aug 27th, 2015 at 8:00 pm SGT

Registration

Please register for the above meeting by visiting this link: http://highheeledtraders.enterthemeeting.com/m/PMRC6YUR

Once you have registered, we will send you the information you need to join the webinar.

https://www.facebook.com/charmel.delossantosmarcial/videos/10153418670569792/?l=1830595368612364610

—————-

Charmel is a full-time tradermom and author of a stocktrading book for women (that men also enjoy!) “High Heeled Traders” helping individual investors like you achieve your life goals with their investments.

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Just announced China cuts interest rate effective Wednesday.
Nevermind the other problems. Stockmarket CPR this is.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/china-lowers-interest-rates-for-fifth-time-since-november

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Attended the Invest ASEAN 2015 Manila leg organized by Maybank and it was a fantastic event that reinforced what I believe all along – that women and Southeast Asian countries with its growing middle class, consumer-driven economies and educated working women are the consumers to focus on, and that will create tremendous growth for investors for years to come. With the stockmarket rout happening globally, we are well-poised to take advantage of undervalued companies that are already reaping benefits of being resident in ASEAN countries. (ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations composed of Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and neighboring Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia)

Check out the research from MasterCard / Maybank that makes the Invest ASEAN campaign all the more exciting!

Back to the stockmarket rout, the Chinese stockmarket again shed 7.6% “Government intervention has dropped substantially,” Michelle Leung, the chief executive officer at Xingtai Capital in Hong Kong, said in e-mailed comments on Tuesday. “The reform-minded camp within the government that favors letting the market do its work seems to be driving decision making right now.” I just said this in my blog post yesterday, that the Chinese government (or any govt) can’t prop up a dropping overvalued stockmarket (see thy wisdom!) and we can see there are Asian indices rebounding – possibly from all the value buys that can be found — these markets which have a consumer economy and less dependent on the weakened manufacturing / export industry — and dare I say, less government meddling!

Chinese Stocks article :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/chinese-stock-index-futures-slump-as-market-rout-seen-worsening

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Hope for Stocks?

August 24, 2015

UPDATE – Aug 25, 715pm China cuts interest rate effective Wednesday

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/china-lowers-interest-rates-for-fifth-time-since-november

“Wait” that’s what I say to people asking me if the market selloff is over and it’s time to buy. I see articles and “gurus” talking about buying these “cheap” blue chips. I understand and also want to pick up bargains, the thing is, they could get even cheaper! AAPL was down to 105 level last Friday, but now just before open it’s at $99 (how low can you go!). There are experts who say the market is over-reacting, but I tell you what, the market is always right. Sentiment is just not improving right now, so why add to more losses? Some are busy talking about WHY the market nosedived. I wouldn’t worry about that now, I would be looking for how the market can recover.

What to watch out for : Economic stimulus – why the Chinese government “supports” the stockmarket the way they do like buying shares is just not going to work, they need to make the whole economy grow (not just the stockmarket companies stock price). The thing is, China has problems they want to address like too much debt (causing housing bubble and that stockmarket bubble – article here), and perhaps secondarily but still necessary to be fixed — poor environmental management, corruption etc so just the usual stimulus by way of interest-rate cut is going to make existing problems worse.

The US Federal Reserve can also add to optimism IF they hold off on the interest rates. But any real decision comes mid September so, there’s some waiting needed there.

We talk about this and more market moving actions in my Low-Risk High-Reward Investing Workshop and I am happy to announce that we will be offering it as a monthly webinar pretty soon!

Meantime, it’s a waiting game on what stimulus and other game plan will be on hand to arrest this downslide. It’s a bear market all around, except perhaps in the US, but it might come soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2Xp6f3VE0

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter

Round and Round It Goes

August 20, 2015

Last night, the Fed was scheduled to release its Minutes of the last meeting, this kind of event usually inspires a lot of caution and volatility, lately because of interest rate hike possibilities, (for sure nobody wants to pay more for interest on their home loans, car loans etc) and that’s all understandable, but to get the Minutes showing concern of low-inflation which caused an upsurge in the stock prices BUT then followed with a stunning fall is very telling. It’s telling me that there is more than the rate hike that investors need to consider. There is also China’s devaluation adding fire to the pressure-cooker situation among currencies, the gold digging deep and oil sliding ($40 per barrel wow!). There is just too many assets diving and so that’s why the stockmarket has to get some selling action too,
1) take profit from winners that’s why even “defensive” stocks get sold
2) reallocate money away fr losing investments and into those that actually benefit from others’ weakness
3) markets increasingly interlinked, for example weak currencies help economies with strong exports like Japan, Germany, China obviously, and with the increased US dollar pushes down the price of gold and oil and the consequent companies with large exposure to currency movements.

In our workshops we discuss the deep reasons for this financial market moves show the strategies that profit from this volatility and market conditions. (So I am happy to tell you that we will again get to spend time in learning together with my upcoming webinars and events.)

I will send out the webinar link for registrations here in a day or two, just testing the features of my new provider.
Meantime watch these videos which I find highly informative and give further clues to the market.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/19/investing/stocks-oil-markets-dow/index.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-19/glencore-ceo-glasenberg-says-no-one-can-read-china-right-now

Share this:
Share this page via Email Share this page via Stumble Upon Share this page via Digg this Share this page via Facebook Share this page via Twitter
Page 1 of 4612345»...Last »