Markets always change.  Like Fashion, darlings.   

There are strong themes though that I think would be coming back and forth in time, sort of like going “retro” with  70’s or 60’s style back in vogue every now and then.  Or hemlines going up and down and up again  — an economist even coined  “The Hemline Index”   saying “ the shorter the skirt, the stronger the economy”  😛

For sure, there are a lot of issues but I will tackle some here that shake the broad markets particularly stockmarket, commodities (Oil, Precious Metals, Agriculture) and Foreign Exchange.  Issues include:

• Debt
• Demographics : One for the Ages
• Transfer of Wealth : New market darlings
• Climate and Environment
• Geopolitical risks : Power to the People

The Fashion world seems to have it all covered!  Check out this Trend report from Elle for the photos.

http://www.elle.com/Fashion/Trend-Reports/Top-10-The-Spring-2011-Trend-Report

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DEBT

I wonder if it is Debt issues that is raging in many parts of the world that gave inspiration to fashion’s trend of  color-blocking (bold, solid colors mixed together) – think Rubik’s Cube in a Gucci dress!  Seemingly flying the flag colors of the US, European Union countries, to Dubai,  governments with the same problem, like there is a “United in Debt We Stand” theme going on.  Apart from governments, there’s also some credit issues with personal debt (credit cards, home loans).   I guess better than waving the white flag of surrender!

This trend will continue due to the massive amount of debt borrowed for years and years and lessening ability to pay.  From concern about government earnings short on payments to  people’s houses actually going on foreclosure,   workers have to be let go, and people limit their spending or businesses can not add staff – not good.

Color-blocking is shocking (well it’s Fashion! It’s meant to stand out!),  I suppose these economies need the energy and positive vibes!

TRANSFER OF WEALTH : New Market Darlings

All is not that bad in other parts of the world.  Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Brazil, Russia, India and China – or BRICs – have been supplying materials, goods and services to rich countries and been able to “save for a rainy day” and invest in growing.  It’s interesting, following the GFC  the “rich” countries are struggling with their debts and the BRICs are bigger and better.  After GFC, is a new batch of market darlings, “emerging economies” as known in the news – and the rising stars are called the “CIVETS”  Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa.  These countries have low debt, robust economies, young and big population and natural resources.  The total package.

With growing influence of China, Eastern inspiration in Fashion is definitely in order – Asian themes are gracing the runways – kimonos, Indochine, and traditional prints. (So very Vera Wang!)   After all, China has been “spreading the good stuff” to its neighbors,  boosting industries with  “cheaper labor” in neighboring VietNam and  investment opportunities in resource-rich  Indonesia,  Australia, neighboring Southeast Asian countries and as far as Latin America where mining and agricultural products are the must-have acquisitions.

All this newfound wealth translate to rising middle class  “shopping sprees” 😛  or consumption.  This in turn put more people at work to produce goods, who get more money to buy modern conveniences –microwaves, washing machines, which needs more resources like iron ore, copper, oil, so it strings along other countries —   Australia, New Zealand, Latin American and African countries who supply them.   I think Fashion gives this hint with its  “layering” and raging “animal / tribal” trends!  I’m not surprised anymore  😛

DEMOGRAPHICS: One for the Ages

It was said behind the housing crisis , is a certain demographic –  younger people who tend to borrow.  Well, they are young, they haven’t been around long enough to save much.   That’s what they (we!) do.

Now how about the “baby boomers”  – retirees needing money for retirement?  It’s been said that a lot of their nest egg melted with the GFC that just happened and any more remaining funds will be withdrawn  from mutual funds / shares moving  to cash or more liquid assets.  Hopefully not all together at the same time, but there will be millions retiring per year and may cause waves on the market from transfer of assets. 

This could even alter the face of societies. There could potentially be more migration, in another era, people migrate to developed countries to seek greener pastures.  With high cost of living and fewer opportunities, many “migrant retirees” would think of returning to their homelands.  This has already happened with Western-trained Chinese professionals lured by the opportunities in their boom town hometown.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704648604575619950288337066.html

As in Fashion I think we should expect economic developments that is “age-appropriate”.

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT

In the last few years, more effort is made to find alternative sources of energy,  largely because of skyrocketing prices of Oil and  environmental impact.  We might continue to see this developments in the market, a toast to “fashion-forward” thinking.

For one, global Oil demand is on the rise with more people needing electricity to run households and gas for cars.  India recently produced the $2000 car “Nano” and you can expect that more people will be able to afford  and use it worldwide.  That’s the prospect for pollution and energy consumption.  So much work ahead of us, I guess jeans and punk  will always be in fashion. 

Another important resource is water.  While it’s been pushed back from people’s minds, the problem is still there.  With wealth and development rapidly “urbanizing” communities, water sources get polluted or even disappear.  We can’t just make water unfortunately.  (We can make “diamonds” but we can’t make water – scary?).    Fashion seems to campaign on this steadily with flower power seen on the fairer sex.

Giving birth to  this twin problems of  high oil prices  and water shortage is rising food prices and skyrocketing prices of agricultural produce like wheat, corn, cotton even beef.   I hope this lets you think about putting the spotlight to the business of trading, if only to protect yourself from these risks.  Get ready to strut your stuff.

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: Power to the People!

Fashion has hung on to “military-inspired”, “gladiator” even “edgy”  looks lately, probably because there’s so much worth fighting for – freedom, democracy, national security.   Early this year, there was a wave of change in governments in the  Middle East  and some say entering a new era of  threats – unresolved nuclear issues,  terrorism, even drug-trafficking.   Supply disruptions due to governance issues in Oil-rich countries also make an appearance in market runways.

From time to time, expect these collection of issues to erupt anytime.

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Keeping Track

There is obviously a lot to track. How can we do it?  I monitor these events from online news, once a week I’d read the articles on those themes, then I just  scan for any new developments, these are major, long term market trends from factors that are not easy to reverse.  Like classic elegant looks that never go out of style.  I invite you to my blog for updates on Market Fashions.

On a daily basis, I find it handy  to look at  Market Index  for the various markets whether the markets ended higher or lower.  I take a quick look at the various indices  – European, US —  I just note whether the markets ended  higher or lower  (if they are green or red) and the percentage – the US market tend to have more influence to the Australian market probably because that market already digested the European market news.

Another information I like to look at is the Market Breadth  in the stock market —  this is the performance of the sum total of all companies.  It is helpful to know whether there were more gainers than losers, and what sectors are performing well.   Sectors are just the groupings of companies of particular industry like the banking or finance sectors, energy, retail etc.

Strong Performing Sectors

Fashion is such an exciting world because everyone  get  to express themselves.  There’s always something new, a twist here and there.  If a look makes a strong  solid impact, it gets to be the next MAJOR trend, with the media quick to anoint and celebrate it.

In the same way, we  pick up a strong market sector or issue quite easily, it’s all in the news.  It gets a lot of volume (participants) and surely, the big money is involved —  getting in or out.   Like you’d always hear about Oil or gold hitting new highs in successive days.  Before the crisis, there’s a lot of news about biotechnology sector, then due to funding issues, this sector seem to have slowed down.

Another way I track the market is to subscribe to the free newsletter of  Van Tharp Institute.  Dr. Tharp gives his view of the market in the first week of the month.  His view is based on the global sector performance from the research of  Ken Long of Tortoise Capital Management.

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It will be good if you can do the same —  checking up on financial markets from  multiple sources that could show the same information.  They are  simple yet  effective. 

Now that’s FIERCE!

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There is a duplicate of this post as a Page so it is easily accesible, it’s under the “Women are Natural Traders” Page on the right hand side of the blog.

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Singapore Shopping by Night

I was walking towards the mall when the idea that  Trading is like Shopping hit me.   At that time, I keep getting asked by my girlfriends to teach them to trade and want to make it easy for them.  And there it was, “Sales” was all over the place, with a lot of women in attendance of course! 

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I thought so many  skills/traits  in trading are used in shopping  :P.  Things like  —

• In shopping, we need to decide on what we want =  setting Objectives in Trading.

Here’s a list I’ve come up with, read the left side of the table for the Shopping skills and read to the right side for the equivalent idea in Trading.

There are lessons to learn  in a similar manner, like:

I  thought  women can use shopping  skills in Trading to make it easy, because, it is a simple thing to do.    You buy something, it goes up in value, you sell. Simple.   😛       Though  I always say “Trading is hard” – it’s because of the discipline involved   — hehehe tells a lot about me?  Don’t laugh!  You will have your chance to find out! 😛 

I bet you can think of some other similarities!   Would love to hear it , post in  “Readers Share!”page  in  the blog www.highheeledtraders.com.  

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Shopping Strategies and Trading Concepts

At the very start of this project, I presented you with how women shop and equivalent Trading concept,  let’s review “Women are Natural Traders”.

In  Fashion = Trend Following

You like to buy what is in fashion – you would only go for the hot new style.  You’re in with the Trend.   In Trading, this is Trend Following.

A trend is set when you see most people following it, like  wearing  the season’s  colors (yellow green,orange or ochre seems to be making the rounds in Spring 2011)  or designs like the military –inspired outfits.  This new thing gets so much press you really know it has arrived.

How to use in Trading:  

• Look for the line chart  in various timeframes, visually, you would see the direction of the line, whether it is going up or down.   Looking back to see the major trend will be one guide, then you want to enter in the direction of the trend.  If it breaks through and with high volume, trend can continue. Like if   Resistance is pierced,  it will move on to new High  or if Support is breached, it will move on to new  Low.
• If market is  moving in a narrow range, trend could be changing.
• If market is moving sideways,  use another strategy.

Bargain buying   = Value Trading

Garage Sale -by Sitta Widiasty Murningtirum

Owing to the Global Financial Crisis,  “bargainistas”  have really come to the fore.  It’s really cool to see people now paying value for money, looking looking looking for that “bargain buy”.   In Trading, this is called “Value Trading”.

Bargainistas like  to negotiate, compare items thoroughly, go for “vintage”, “the art” without the price tag. 

How to use in Trading:  

• Value trading   requires  looking  for shares trading at a deep discount.  You need to look into financial data.  This requires a bit of research about Graham’s Number – NCAV or Net Current Asset Value .  You can search online  for resources or check out Dr. Tharp’s book “Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom” which discusses this concept, with detailed instructions on how to find the  NCAV.
• Value trading suits a longer timeframe – hold until the undervalued stock will rise in price.

Band Trading / Seasonal

You buy what is not in season  because you know it would be back.   

• Like buying some popular designs that may  not be the rage but looks good so it is sure to come back in favour  — like  bootcut jeans, a bit overshadowed by “skinny” style
• Buying out of season colors  like white or light shades in the winter because summer will come along again and they will be popular.  You just need to keep it awhile  that’s all  ;p

How to use in Trading:  

In trading  when you think differently about a trend ie. it will not continue or  will go sideways, you can use  Band Trading or Seasonal analysis.

Band  Trading –    I’ve talked about “rubber band”, observe how the band is stretched yet it goes back to it’s stable shape.   Look at the line chart and look for opportunity to go against the trend when it shows signs of weakening – usually with lower volatility.  For example,  a stock would normally move by 1.20 then the following day, it moved only 50 cents, then 30 cents then finally it moved only 10 cents.   You could also look at Support / Resistance level, if the price attempts to go past Support / Resistance for a number of days  but did not close past it and volume is low, the trend is fading.  You may also consider Negative or Cautious sentiment in the market.

Seasonal –   you can anticipate a rise in price when demand is slack, this is easier to observe for  Energy and Agricultural products. 

 Usually they will follow the hot/cold / wet/dry  seasons of the year.    For example,  there is high demand for Oil in the summer (due to driving holidays)  and winter (for heating).  So you would have “shoulder season”  where the demand is lower.  There is a build up to the high demand season so prices could be on the upswing in prices and  start to decline before the end of the high demand season.

You may want to review  Technical Analysis for discussion of  trends.

Snow and Sky - photo by Christopher Verheyden

Online Shopping : Intermarket Analysis + Arbitrage

Online shopping  is rocking  Australia.  I confess to doing it sometimes and telling my friends. Why? 

• Online websites  almost always sell things cheaper than Australia, the difference is something like  200 to 500%.  (I think because of Australia’s pricey real estate, cost of  finance and distribution – just my thoughts, nothing official! )
• Plus we can take advantage of overseas Sales  on “out of season” stuff that we still need – especially clothing.  Summer in the Northern Hemisphere – winter Down Under.
• Australian dollar is higher than US Dollar, so it is a “built-in” discount.  Aussie $ may even march forward due to rise of interest rates (to contain inflation).

Intermarket Analysis  involve looking  at influences of a move in one market to another.  Australia’s economy was spared a recession largely due to the strong demand of  its commodities – iron ore, gold, coal, oil and gas —  these markets performed strongly and is on a major boom due to the need of emerging markets (esp favourite customer China).  The  earnings of the government / industries enabled  jobs to grow which let people spend confidently and Aussie Dollar.

Arbitrage is about exploiting a “loophole” or window of opportunity to profit or benefit.  The difference in the seasons and half-yearly Sales is certainly a window of opportunity.

 So if you are an online shopper in Australia, you are in fact doing Intermarket  Analysis and Arbitrage –  beauty mate!

Women and Shopping – always good together.  Women and Trading, the world better watch out!

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Just read   Reuters article 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-usa-debt-bondholders-idUSTRE75718320110608

As I said in article “Hide and Seek” back in May, US shouldn’t even breathe a word about defaulting on their debt.  The issue still dragging on till now (mid June).  Finally, Big Brother China couldn’t take it anymore and scolding US not to even go there.   US listen to Big Brother or another global financial crisis will unfold… not happy to be proven right on this.   US will probably be kick out of the exclusive “rich countries club” if ever this happens…. how can you ever pay trillions of dollars in debt and still “maintain” your standard of living (or spending> borrowing?) 

There could be a flight from US Dollar – where will the money go?  Euro ? Nahhhh similar problems.  Emerging economies with growth are already targets.  Exporters prepare to hurt!

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Looking - photo by Fr.Noi Azupardo

If you’re looking for the hot strategy, fool-proof indicators and magical entry technique, it’s not in this fairytale!  😛   To trade, I just use easy and effective Technical Analysis.  I told you my 5yr old son can trace the charts and that’s the heart  of it.  

Technical Analysis is based on price.    Some traders say they use Technical Analysis to trade.  They interpret the price information in charts and past data that form patterns or  indicators and all that kind of stuff.  They say what happened in the past will dictate what will happen in the future.  OK let’s just say, there is some possibility.  That’s why I use some simple technical analysis.  If you’ve been observing the market though, whatever happens, happens.    There  are events that happen one day, prices fall, there was bad economic news or debt issues, prices rise because more bailout is on the way.   Can’t explain it in absolute terms, nobody can,  (even Dr. Nouriel Roubini who predicted the Subprime Crisis  was 2 years early… ), anyway,  for me there is no need to torture brain cells on understanding  oscillators, stochastics and “greeks” for Options.   

This section details what I use in finding the opportunity in the Trading process  that we will get into later.

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What’s the Price?

There are different kinds of Prices.  Just like in Shopping,  prices change.  Something like when High prices are set for vegetables that are very fresh, or low prices when a Sale starts (Opens), then as the season progress, they mark it down further  with a different Close price.  So you would see Prices quoted at Open, Close,  High and Low.

For example, traders pay attention to these interpreting as follows:

• If  Open price is higher than yesterday’s Close, there is a trend UP
• If Open price is lower than yesteday’s Close, there is a trend DOWN

The succession of prices is seen together as a trend and show the direction of the market.  Over time, the trends shown could go Up, Down, or Sideways.   Note that your  trading timeframe will limit showing the trend, like  1 week down-trend could actually be a part of a 6month Uptrend.  So you have to look at different timeframes to be able to see the main  trend.

Different  Trading concepts look at Trends to see where a profit can be made.  We will discuss that later.

What are you looking at?       

Price is represented in different ways as well,

• bar charts that is basically an upright stick where they put  little “marks” to indicate High, Low etc
• candlesticks – shown as hollow or filled up depending on price went down or up
• line graph – this plots the closing price over time

Guess which one I use?  The simplest one – the line graph.  My trading strategy just use the closing price and medium timeframe.  I do look at high and lows but these get shown in price table so if I want to check in detail, I look there.    The line chart clearly shows the trend, key highs and lows that I use to spot an opportunity and measure risk.

Example : Line chart showing High and Low

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What to look for

Look for opportunity  based on the price history.   There are 2 price points that could be used to place price in context  and where the opportunity could be.  These are the High (Resistance) and Low (Support) levels of the price chart.

VOLUME which is the number of people who have placed orders to buy or sell, usually drive the price moves.  So look at that too when looking at prices.  If few buyers exist and are pushing up the price, it is usually not sustainable.  If there are more sellers than buyers that is also indicating something, what do you think?  This is the same as if you are in a weekend market and constantly being offered something at a price and you don’t do the deal,  you can expect the seller to offer you a lower price right?  That usually happens in the  financial markets too!

Your opportunity will be dictated by the Trading Concept, we will pick up on this on the Trading Process.

VOLATILITY

You would notice the price move up and down or is “volatile” .    I’ve come to discover that this is a normal feature of the market.  You can’t expect for prices to move in one direction all the time because different people trade in the markets for different reasons, some are value buyers, some are trying to protect their holdings or hedge another asset , have different timeframes etc.  Like I can go to the weekend vegetable market and buy a kilo of apples, as I was in a hurry I didn’t try to haggle, the seller gives it to me for $4, then the next buyer comes and want to buy the whole of what’s left say, 5 kilos, then will ask for a discount.  The seller is happy to finish up so can take off $2 from the total price and goes home.  Meantime, the neighboring seller notice he’s got no more competition, so he jacks up the price.  (Isn’t shopping fun?!)   Ok, so prices go up and down,  it’s to be expected.

To know how “volatile”, how much a stock moves in a day, get the High price and subtract the Low price   e.g.  80cents minus 50cents, the move for the whole day is 30cents, even though it just closed from the previous day’s closing price by 10cents for example. During the day, it went up and down and up and down. Fine.

It’s how big the change  that you watch out for.  I  kind of have my  Low-Mid-High  classification of volatility based on what I am trading.  For example, a share worth $ 14 moves 20 cents that’s low, 30 cents is   mid-level, if the move is 50cents that a high volatility. All this is intuitive. I suggest you observe this every day with stock you are watching.  (You can do some mathematical computations of “moving averages” if you want).  If the volatility is high, I adjust my risk, change strategy or not trade if the market is too choppy.  It’s like going on the open seas, you need a stable, big boat to ride the wild waves. ;p    Let’s say, as  beginners we are  just little boats so we’d wait out the rough seas.  It’s important to know that you don’t have to be at the market all the time —  if it’s not going to be profitable because of the wild swings and your system only works with trends, if you don’t have skills to handle it.

Waiting Boats - photo by Noel Abejero

There is a volatility indicator called the VIX  which is a symbol for  the Chicago  Board  Options Volatility Index  and is known as a “fear gauge”. Traders look at this to measure the (US) market’s expectation of direction (which also affects local markets).  I am  studying this now to see  how it can improve my trading.

http://www.cboe.com/data/volatilityindexes/volatilityindexes.aspx

BREAKOUT

I am sure during teenage years you’ve had bouts of  “breakouts” on your skin.  This nasty surprise would normally follow with more nasty surprises, after a  (frustrating) period of time, it will begin to subside.

Breakouts also happen to be useful in Trading.  I told you about  Volatility, at certain times, the volatility would be low, just bouncing around there, nothing is happening, this is called a consolidation.  Then, a move up from the range materialize, and  so you get a breakout! The move could continue in the direction of the price that broke free of the consolidation.   It  could be another opportunity to trade so watch it along with volume.

CHART PATTERNS

You might have heard of  head and shoulder patterns, flags or in the candlestick charting some cute names like doji and hammer.

Again this is popular with traders who believe what had happened before is a good basis for the future.  I tried to study these before, don’t think I didn’t try hard.  It drove me nuts.  I found  they are confusing,  like when does the head start to form?  I look at 6months chart and I don’t see anything, they all look weird!  When do  patterns start?  Besides, the past is not a guarantee to profits.

In the Advanced Workshops I’ve attended at Van Tharp Institute, we don’t study patterns for prediction (we don’t predict!).  What is emphasized is looking at charts  to measure risk and potential opportunity.   

There’s no confusion there.   KEEP THINGS CLEAR.

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What Size Where?-photo by AJ Mallari

If there is one thing that made wake me up to the fact that I was  Trading wrong, it’s Position Sizing^TM.  I picked this up from “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom” by Dr. Van Tharp  (who owns the Trademark -hence the TM- for it).  He notes  “the concept of Position Sizing^TM is one of the two key factors you must master if you want success in the market”.  And for me, staying alive.  😛  (The other key factor is Psychology or what I prefer calling Self-Mastery).

Position Sizing^TM as we’ve talked about  earlier answers the question “how much” we are risking per  trade. 

Let’s review:

• This  “how much” is NOT  the amount you are using to buy your shares ,  this is the amount you are willing to Risk or  “lose” per trade.
• You  decide on this before doing anything, small enough to keep you trading and big enough to have a worthwhile profit from an opportunity.
• 1% to 2% of capital should let you trade comfortably.  Position Size is expressed as a percentage of your capital.

Let’s bring back the previous example in Learn to Last – Financially

Say for example, you have $5000, you want to preserve 80% of your capital or $4000, you then have 1,000. Of this 1000, you want to budget for a string of losses (say 10) which will give you $100 to risk in a position. (Fees are excluded here for simplicity but note it could cost $45 to open so $90 to open and close the transaction – for Options).
5,000 capital
4,000 amount to be preserved, at 80% of capital
1,000 amount to be risked at trading opportunities
10 number of successive losses you are willing to tolerate
100 the amount you will risk in a position

$100 or the 2% of $5000  is your  Position Size^TM

NOTE : In the Trading Process to be discussed later. We will also refer to your Position Size as 1R – R for Risk – 1R for the first amount you will be risking.

You may want to check  Dr. Tharp’s e-learning  resource for this very important topic.

http://www.vantharp.com/products/Position-Sizing-Elearning-Intro.asp

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Two Things to Think Through

In Trading, I said earlier, you first need to Learn to Last.  Survive.

When you’ve learned enough to stay alive,  the next thing is to learn to grow profits. Thrive.

You should have different Position Sizing^TM to meet these Objectives.

I confess, before I knew all about this, (and sometimes after I’ve learned it), I’d vary how much I’d spend on trading based on what I think is my “need” for profits. WRONG!   It’s a sure way to losing it all.  (I should know!)   I really didn’t have a strategy.  I didn’t think I needed it.  I didn’t find this in  broker’s educational resources or trading seminars.   Anyway, you might bump into “Money Management” but that is just a wee bit related – talking about how to allocate money to what you will buy etc. But not for every trade. It’s not the same thing.

Survive – take baby steps

Looking back at that (painful) experience one of the lessons apart from that I didn’t know position sizing or a strategy to stay alive for that matter, is that I traded with big amounts (for my capital).  I absolutely recommend you trade  small as you start.  You are just learning at this stage. You might think,”I’m going for it”. “I’ve got big dreams that I want to achieve”, but girl, all that will come later.  I also suggest  to think that you will have a string of losses,  from the example above, use 10 consecutive losses.  It can absolutely happen, plan for this so you can keep trading.

So for the first trades,  like “baby steps”,  go slowly, one foot first, then put the second foot in front.    When you first start trading, just open one position, on one stock (or whatever you are trading). Monitor and close that first, do not open another trade while that one is in progress.   Multiple positions can confuse you, (I sooooooooo  know this!)   Just keep going along one trade at a time.

You budgeted for 10 losing trades, when you get to half (after 5 trades) and you haven’t won anything, I suggest you STOP actual trading and paper trade or practice again.  You could still lack some technical knowledge and/or discipline.    When you have good results with practice trading (e.g. back to your old capital), resume trading, but remember now you have less capital.  You can elect to stay at  2% or lessen that to 1% but that is not likely to be profitable given your capital. Don’t try and recover what you lost with BIG position.  There is no guarantee it will be a winner, you could burn a bigger hole.

Now you might be thinking at this point, what if I still keep losing?  Actually,  I use a Covered Call Options strategy with this Position SizingTM so I don’t lose as much and remain in the business.  Mentioned this in “Learn to Last-Financially” and  will discuss it more later at the Trading process (building the suspense! 😛 )

Thrive – step up!

Thrive - photo by AJ Mallari

Eventually you will get to the point where you’ve grown your capital. (Think positive!).  If you are above 40%  from original capital, in our example the $5000, thus you now have $7000, that’s a good place to increase your risk.   I suggest the following adjustments :

1. Increase from overall capital, say your $5000 became $7000 – 2% of that is $140
2. Increase from profits only, say your $2000 profit, use 10% of that which is $100 to add to your original position sizing^TM $100 (the  1% from $5000) for a new position size of $200 (2.85%)

It’s up to you what to use.  I use the second option just because I am more comfortable knowing I only spend my profits, keeping track of original investment that I may want to use for other investment later.  Remember the Infinity concept?

The increased position size will help you to multiply your win.  Think instead of the 100 x $1 shares, you have double that now, having 200 x $1 shares.    With the same effort, you are multiplying your income.  Isn’t that exciting?!    Step Up! Step Up! Step Up!

(Position Sizing^TM is a Trademark of  Van Tharp Institute / Dr. Van Tharp

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I worry about being too honest here. 😛 Talking losses, study and work, even I feel scared sometimes. HEHEHE Well I tell myself, at least they know BEFORE starting than diving in and finding out later. What’s the difference? Your bank balance. 😛

I do have a point, right?!  😛

Dream Shoes -Via Uno

Ok so let me make it up to you and tell you what excites me about this Trading business. What keeps me dreaming about it (like a lovely pair of shoes LOL).

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Top 5 Reasons to Trade

1. Very important to me as a working Mom – I can make money without “me”.   Once I’ve set it up, I can let the trade move even when I’m out on playdates, work, sleep or go on holiday. Time is very important to me, I am multiplying my income and time by employing money. HOW: Selling time with Call Options,  Stocks with dividends
2. I can make money from nothing. I just use my money to make more money, over and over and over, and eventually take out my capital. HOW : This can be done by keeping in mind the good old concepts of Velocity of Money and Infinity.
3. I can make money in Up, Down and Sideways market. Great in these times —  most assets need a rampaging bull market to be profitable — not much of that now!  So  HOW:  Get the market condition and strategy right together and you can trade so many opportunities in any market, that’s glorious abundance right there.
4. I can be wrong and still be profitable. You know how hard it is to always be right, right? The only bad thing with this is you limit your profits. Still you don’t lose money and for a beginner, this is a big help. HOW:  Use Options strategies like Covered Call, Spreading and Straddles.
5. I can risk small and profit BIG. HOW : Position sizing will tell you how small you need to risk that will keep you trading, Options will let you use that to reap Big profits.

 Oh, did I tell you that you really really really need to be good? 😛

Let it Grow!

Money is a precious resource (I can think of much more pleasurable way to lose it!)   😛    The Top 5 Reasons to Trade are not only “nice to have”  lessons  these are my guiding principles and how I trade (after rising from the ashes).  

Sustainable - photo by AJ Mallari

OK so let’s get this right — once you’ve got your funds for trading, let it grow.   Reinvest whatever profits or money you make from it. Don’t touch it, OK? We talked about allocations earlier (in Fun with Funds – Shop and Trade), about needing to put money in different places. Don’t include your Trading / Investing profits there. It’s small to begin with, keep it growing in your trading account. This will allow you to grow your account enough that you can increase your position sizing and grow faster with less risk.  

 Your Trading will be much more sustainable.    Or reserve it for that once in a blue moon trade that has got a massive profit potential. (There’s a well-known story of George Soros trading against the British pound sterling  with $1 Billion win – how much do you think he bet on it? $ 1million dollars is probably small.) Save it for those kind of trades.

Tell yourself (and whoever else is interested in the money you make) you’re not touching that money. Not in a million years… or even just  5.   :p

Let it grow!  Let it grow! Let it grow!

Let me grow - photo by Sheila Sanga

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by Hasegawa Yosuke

I’ve  said that it is a GREAT start not to have money to Trade at first.  Apart from giving you the chance to have a strong belief in what you will do, it will give you time to learn.  :p    I know a few people  ( me included!)  who did some research, thought I know everything, then started investing (stocks and real estate), and lost money.  I can’t guarantee that will NOT happen to you. But at least I can warn you and give you the benefit  of my fruitful experience.  😛

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It dawned on me that there are really 2 things you need Money for – in order to learn to Trade.

1. Educational materials
2. Actual trading, and then some

EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS

• BASICS.  Online broker’s website, or Stock Exchange website, educational materials on trading is  readily available. They include basic topics like  What Stocks are about, Strategies, Products, Mechanics of Trading, you can all get them for free online.  They are written factually so they are a good resource.
• Trader’s experience  – I found though that apart from the basic information / knowledge, you have to know more from great Traders who have a wealth of experience from the market.  “Market Wizards” and “New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager come to mind.   Learn from insights and experiences (plenty in here! )  I made mistakes that  you don’t need to do, how good is that!  🙂    
• Financial news websites (online) are also a good source of market information.  The materials you read could be useful, but not 100% reliable, ok?   J   For one thing, markets move so fast at times, what is written could be replaced immediately by another event
• More advanced trader education about Psychology, Business Planning is also important.  I have done Van Tharp Institute’s  advanced workshops and courses which helped me a lot.   They have free tests and games too.  Check their website www.vantharp.com
• Subscribe to newsletters about the market. I  like Investment University / The Oxford Club.  They have free newsletters and other products that you could consider.
• Trading blogs –  l like the one written by Ken Long who is also a teacher in the Van Tharp Institute.  There are a lot of conflicting / different ideas in Trading. I will only recommend what I think follow principles I adhere to and is useful to Women. Keep checking  the Links page
• With the Trading process I have outlined in Walk This Way and will discuss at length later, I’ve woven in some Psychology and Business Planning to start you off. We’ll get there.

Meantime, here are some links to Educational resources, tutorials, software by Stock Exchanges themselves that  you can check for yourself:

Australian Stock Exchange   (ASX)

http://www.asx.com.au/resources/shares-education.htm

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

Publications   http://www.nyse.com/about/education/1098034584990.html 

Investor Education http://www.nyse.com/about/education/1022630233386.html

Singapore Exchange (SGX)

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/marketplace/mp-en/investor_centre

The Dawn…

One of the biggest mistakes I did was to trade after learning about Trading from the regular books and Stock Exchange websites.  So I hope you know now about the other things that you need to prepare for.

by Hasegawa Yosuke

However after all that “knowledge”, and even after “paper trading”, you’d need to allow yourself time and money to learn to trade “actual” money.  To tell you the truth, it’s different when you put money on the line. Make a mistake,  then you will  learn.  Actual trading will crystallize the lessons. Hehehe    I’ve been trading for 9 years and still learning up to now  😛    

My challenges : The hardest thing for me to learn or overcome is discipline issues, keeping losses small, taking profits.   These are related to Psychology / Self-Mastery.  Some technical knowledge about the market  also factor in, but mainly it’s those three.

Your challenges :  Who knows?  😛   You will definitely know after some trades.  Hehehe    Some components would be the same like profit-taking, loss, etc.  but  it’s different set of challenges for every trader as we have different beliefs and background.  Marvel in what you will be learning.

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AND?   That means you have to gather funds to cover education expenses, losses (think of it as ‘miscellaneous fees’) and your capital.   Nobody told me that when I started!

You are way ahead of all other beginners! 

May the Fierce be with you!

The Dawn - photo by Noel Abejero

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I didn’t know why until a few months ago. “Live below your means” seems to be a sound financial idea and everybody seems to be recommending it, but I don’t get it. Maybe, the author and I just don’t have the same idea of what it means to LIVE.

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Please EMAIL me  charmel@highheeledtraders.com for copy of T. Harv Ecker’s eBook “Secrets of the Millionaire Mind”.

 LIVING is growing, stimulating, flourishing.

 

 

 

 

 

LIVING is going beyond.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Beyond - photo by Fr.Noi Azupardo

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“Below” just doesn’t seem to fit in all of that. “Below”, instead of going up, is staying under, keeping within limits. So how can that remotely be a way “to live”?

LIVING – is the wonder of how this day and age came to be. The fruits of peoples’ imaginings WAY OUT of their realm of possibilities. And their wallets. 😛

I look back at the walk in life I’ve had so far. Back when, the shoes I am wearing would fall apart after 6 months or 3 on rainy seasons, not only that they were cheap and thus not made to last long, but because where I walked early in life, the road was unpaved, and gets awfully muddy when the rain comes. You bet it was.  My sister reminded me, of the countless times we’d  have to bring shoes to the repair shop or apply stinky adhesive ourselves and sometimes get to school with wet socks.   😛     My mom, a teacher, insisted though we go to the best schools that we couldn’t afford.   🙂  I remember bringing promissory notes to the school treasurers, which we pay eventually after dad secures a loan from work or somewhere.

Via Uno Shoes

From there I walk in shoes I would give up on wearing before they give up on me. Then have the pleasure of wearing shoes I don’t have to pay for. You’re right, girlfriend! I got into fashion and beauty and have business sponsors.

Now to be clear, what I’d like to share is that you have to focus on growing. To grow doesn’t have to be limited by your own means.

So before I discuss the 2 remaining ideas I mentioned in gathering funds for Trading, I want to tell you about “money management” principles — meaning “how we divide the pie”, our income. The strategy that make the most sense to me came from T. Harv Eker, author of Secrets of the Millionaire Mind. Trading being my business, influenced my preference for this approach. First, how to manage your money. Harv recommends the following allocation :
• 10% – Financial Freedom (for investing)
• 10% – Long Term Savings for Spending (for retirement)
• 10% – Education
• 10% – Giving
• 10 % – Playing “Rewarding”
• 50% – Necessities

I like it because the allocations give you the ability to grow first of all, with the Education and Financial Freedom. Then it allows you to feel good about yourself – be rewarded for your efforts with Play account, and Giving account which allow you to feel plentiful and being able to share and therefore, receive  (Law of Reciprocity). Having said that, I’d be frank and tell you I’m still not following the recommended percentages. Apart from the 10% Long-Term Savings, I fiddle with the amounts.  The way I look at it, it’s largely dependent on your personal circumstance. Like I was on maternity leave for 1 year, and at that time, I made it a point to “educate” myself as much as I can. So, Education was the priority – after all, how can I invest my money for Financial Freedom when I don’t know what to do? Also within that year, I know I have TIME. I have time to go overseas for the Advanced Trading seminar I wanted, which I can not do once I go back to work.

The important point I want to share is having those allocations – for Necessities, Financial Freedom (Investing), Education, Playing and Giving, Savings — as it aids you when you Trade, it gives you balance.

So please keep that in mind, and now back to  gathering funds for Trading.
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SIMPLIFY YOUR LIFE

 
I  could plunge right in to aggressive saving strategies that I discovered from the whole new world of bloggers or people sharing information about saving.  But first let me tell you my own thinking:
1. What I do in my life, my time and my money should support my Trading. Especially the time, mindset and balance I need to study and do it effectively.
2. I invest in my health and well-being, forgetting that, will make my life difficult and just turn up as an expense later.
3. I invest in life skills and lessons especially for my children
4. I look for value. I don’t judge value by the price, I judge value by the results I’d get

 

The Spending Plan

 
Also known as the B-word. B for Budget. This word is a little bit depressing, so let’s change that to Spending! You like that? Spending is more like Shopping! Now we’re getting somewhere! Hehehe  And I’m not kidding – me thinks  what you plan to Spend on allow you to keep as much money, do things efficiently and save time.  That helps you to Trade well.

 I also need to tell you your Spending or Shopping habits influence your Trading.  Not kidding.     I had to do some scrimping and saving last year and that kind of carried to how I traded in the market. I was very protective. I thought my stock would just stay where it is and didn’t allow for the possibility that it could surge.   Back in the recession, I was more open to finding what will move (sideways or up or down ), so I had more profits even with a fluctuating market.  So now I am more aware.  So use Shopping in Trading for both its idea and  how you behave.

Now to get the funds together, I anchor on “Simple Life”  especially for household expenses, a few examples:

Simple Life,Philippines - photo by Sheila Sanga

• Weekly food menu – lets me plan the timing of shopping  and control the spending.  I have for example, a baseline budget of $5 per meal (2 adults, 3 children).  I ask them what food they want that week and work around that with the other meals.  I could have  baked salmon or hot and sour  “tom yum prawn” (around $25 per kilo) —  the pricier food together with roast chicken (whole bird is $7 which gets eaten for 2 meals and sandwich filling). 
• List of items where they can be bought for the best value.  Basics  of good quality, for example at ALDI – Diapers there cost $14 whereas the comparable quality branded one is $40 (that’s a lot of $). We also buy in bulk for a month so save time shopping and lessen the chances of picking up “treats” that add up hehehe
• Snacks for the children – plain popcorn, fruits,  corn kernels, nuts that we roast ourselves.  I don’t serve them things like chicken nuggets from when they are young, so that solves concern about fat, additives, salt (plus less energy consumption and carbon footprint).   To keep cool in the summer, we’ve been swapping ice cream with fruit shakes (I freeze excess slightly damaged fruit in season that are cheap) and “shaved ice” – the kids enjoy cranking up the shaver and form shapes, what’s more it’s just water.  No sugar, no fat.  We also don’t keep soda in the house or cordial.   Another favourite is making gelatine desserts,  they love helping to make it or  when just using simple molds,  we use cookie cutters and they enjoy forming the shapes.   I do allow “extras” sometimes like butter on the popcorn,  but this is the exception.
• Watch appliance use / energy  consumption – since Oil and Coal are raising the price of electricity and to reduce the environmental impact I’ve also been much more conscious of appliance particularly use of washing machine and dryer.  I’m quite particular with washing clothes so this was a “big” adjustment. I wash less loads now (I used to have 9 classification of clothes for washing and wash everyday hehehe).  I also just handwash and hang things like sweater and jacket where it says “Dry Clean Only” (except for very few).   A friend of mine tipped me about the peak/off-peak charges for electricity, so I’ve been following that and air / sun-drying more.  Last winter we didn’t use our heater all that much (lucky our building is well-built with good insulation) so this year, we’re skipping the heater.  Everybody will just be well-wrapped up. 😛
• Reusing, Recycling, Replacing – we must all be very aware now of our impact to the environment, I’ve now been closely watching our use of  “disposables”.  The cling wrap, disposable food containers, party ware (plastic cups, cutlery, plates).  For picnics, we just use sturdy plastics and bring back things we use and wash them and reuse them.  That lessens our use of disposables. As for use of cling wrap, I avoid that with using containers with cover – I found it is also much more convenient to use these containers that I can use to serve food and store leftovers afterwards.  I prefer glass containers so less “plastics” in use and also convenient to shove in the microwave when needed.

 

Other money-saving examples  :

• Buying good clothes which are long-wearing. I also tend to buy clothes for the children with room for growth at the Sales, or overseas where they tend to be cheaper.  ( I do this via online shopping sometimes, in bulk to save on Shipping costs)
• No smoking. This adds a lot to insurance premiums–so not good for health or the pocket. So with coffee (save  on teeth whitening),  alcohol (liver problems) — all these things don’t do you good.
• Car pooling / Ride-sharing – save money on parking, gas
• Borrowing books / DVDs from the library or buying in garage sales. There’s plenty, with some even given away.
• Get a discount/deal for everything.  Sometimes all you have to do is ask.  Truly, lots of shops even in the malls are open to do this now. If not a discount, a freebie you can use is not bad.  Subscribing to stores for deals could be useful, just be strong whenever the word Sale is used ;p
• Look for family-friendly  features – airlines, restaurants, hotels, malls,  they’d usually have something to entertain the children which saves time for packing as well as something new (saves you from buying toy/book)
• Keep  improving in saving more.  Example, instead of  “take-away” meals ($10), I bought a marinated half-chicken ($5), then I marinated it myself ($4), then I do away with the the marinade because it was too salty.  ($3)

 Some words of caution:

• Coupons — not all coupons are created equal!  I would check out a “tried and tested” shop/brand and look out for coupon for those, and if ever you’re trying out something new, ask around for feedback.  And be sure it’s a phenomenal deal  for the value.
• Book hotels in online hotel sites even with “70% discounts”.  There’s no room for negotiation (for a family with baby, this is mighty important) and once you make a mistake (and can’t cancel), kiss your money good bye!  I try to negotiate with hotels directly first.

 

Here are a few other blogs / resources  on “minimalist” lifestyles :

www.andthenshesaved.com

www.exconsumer.com

BUSINESS AND PLEASURE

With busy careers,  having a holiday or rest and recreation has become so important in modern life.    I recommend that even if you are so busy or trying to save, to take  the rest your body and mind needs.    Like, if there’s a chance to go out of town for work, I’d take the children  so we get to enjoy that time together and save on  the airfare and hotel accommodation.

Eating Out, Boracay Philippines - photo by Fr.Noi Azupardo

Being so busy, I also allow for eating out.  In an effort to save, we don’t go as much as before.   I allow for this because this gives me a break.     I don’t have to cook, serve, and clean up.  If  I pay someone to do all that, plus the food itself, how much is that worth?  I think eating out could cost even just 1/3 or 1/2 of that, why will I not do it?    Having had that break, how much more can I do and consequently how much more  will I be able to earn?  I think this goes with paid househelp like cleaner or babysitter.   I am conscious of not “doing too much”.  I have to allow for  rest  or help so I can be more productive.

We do limit it now and not  go for fastfood.  We go to where the children can learn something, like a Japanese restaurant, Chinese, Vietnamese, Thai or  the Fish Market (the children are fascinated with the variety there).  Recently we saw how a sushi roll is prepared and we’ve been doing that now at home too and lessen our costs for  “entertainment” and is also handy for parties.

So you know, I think it’s  not just the price. Let’s  go for Value!

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Interesting article I found on CNN “Personal Financial Advice from Barack Obama” who, combined with the First Lady have $125,000 in school loans upon graduation.

“If we’re borrowing for things we don’t need. That’s a problem,” Obama said, saying it’s OK to borrow for “sound” investments such as schools, clean energy and infrastructure.

“In these debates the other side is going to say investment is just another word for spending,” the president said. “There is a distinction to be made on spending on things that are going to make you more competitive over the long term, to increase your wealth, and spending on things you’d like to have, that aren’t really improving your life over the long term.”

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/09/news/economy/obama_financial_advice/index.htm?iid=HP_River

 

T Harv Eker – My take on life is simple: “You can be kind, loving, spiritual, balanced, and really REALLY RICH!” So stick around and I will show you how… – CEO – Click and be Free – – Author of the best-selling books, Secrets of the Millionaire Mind and SpeedWealth. Also developed several highly-…

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SELL “STUFF”
Usually these would be your “non-performing assets” – those that you keep around but don’t actually use, don’t generate income or may even cost you money.
• Jewelry
• Holiday home / Timeshare
• Appliances (Electric Guitar, Keyboard, 2nd Refrigerator, TV, etc)
• 2nd car
• Collectibles (coins, dolls, antiques)

Like I lost one gold hoop earring – I still have the other one, but I can’t wear it now! (Or maybe in a pirate-themed party :p ) That could be converted to cash. With the high price of gold, silver and platinum –called “Precious Metals” in financial markets, jewelry is easy to sell. Locally, you could go to pawnshops or there could be a kiosk in your mall now buying gold jewelry from the public. Remember Mr. T? The “action star” from the 80’s, he’s now a spokesmodel for a gold buying company in the US. Yes, gold is that valuable, a secondary market is flourishing to even warrant a model from Hollywood!

Here’s a video clip of a golden Mr. T from Bloomberg:

“Stuff” that has value
You may also want to convert “valuable things” that you have that you don’t need that can be converted to cash. I have a neighbour who goes around on weekends to “garage sales” and buys interesting things like expensive crystal vase, silverware or china to sell in eBay. I think you’d have to have a keen interest in this kind of activity, but know that it can be done. That could be few hundred dollars every month, not bad for a hobby from “shopping”.

“Extra” car
Yes, if public transport is not easily accessible, you’d need extra transport. However, if you can instead use a bicycle, consider doing so. For good health and cost-savings (no gas, insurance), this is an alternative worth looking at. I heard there are also car-sharing schemes being run and if you have house guests, there are always car-rental companies to call on. This eliminates your annual insurance payments, and maintenance costs — that could be a few hundred to a thousand dollars on payments you save on each year!

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