High Heeled Traders

So which stocks give the highest reward? The least risky stocks. Found this article with the research debunking the myth that taking on “higher risk can get you higher reward”. Now that’s welcome support to my most cherished belief that low-risk ideas actually gives you high returns. “What the researchers found is surprising: The riskiest 25 percent of stocks—those most vulnerable to swings of the broad market—logged an average annual return of just over 7 percent per year. The least-risky 25 percent of stocks returned 10.6 percent per year. On a $10,000 investment over those four decades, the lower-risk stocks would have yielded more than $450,000.” That’s a whole lot of difference. My book “High Heeled Traders” gives the reader a fun and easy way to understand how to do low-risk high-reward investing. Get it with discount in Amazon.com here. Perfect gift for the ladies out there!

Meanwhile, oil prices, what a ride! I still have an oil stock and that is definitely giving me a challenge. I haven’t gotten out of it because it is just part of my overall portfolio, and I’ve been amiss in getting out early. Nevertheless, is it time to look for “bargains” and is the worst over?

Let’s look at some signs.
1. Stimulus – this is an iffy and disappointing one with the European Union, there is a standing one for corporate bonds most people want more, BUT Japan and China the 2nd and 3rd biggest economies have adopted stimulus measures like QE and rate cuts and may continue to do so to prop up their weakening economies. When it comes to political will, China has lots of it and they have proven wise to use it. Not to mention having a fair interest in the commodity market (Chinese investors were buying up mines and oil remember?).

2. Economic Growth – the US is certainly on strongest footing in this regard coming off their years of recession. Only this week,
>> the Oil inventories report showed an increased demand, with the price of oil at this level it has been reported people are driving more
>> Employment is steadily growing and most importantly, wages are increasing, from .01 at the previous report to .04. ( Wow!)
“a jump in wages as well as the biggest hiring surge in almost three years suggests the world’s largest economy is putting aside doubts about the strength of the expansion”. In the last 12 months, wage growth was 2.1 percent, and that’s very encouraging. Article here.
>> Motor vehicle sales rose to a 17.1 million annualized rate in November. And guess what these run around with… certainly not water! Oil is certainly cheap right now, but I doubt it’s going to go down much more with this kind of demand.

That said, I know now where the wise men of OPEC is coming from!

3. Geopolitics, Weather and What not — I mean what else! Russia is still out in the cold with the rest of the world, ISIS fighting, Syria and those mean weather cycles and oil prices is going to be in an interesting tango. IF oil prices continue to fall, trust that there will be feeding frenzy by the big players for the smaller players (who still have their productive mines/oil wells as assets), and that “M & A” or mergers and acquisitions activity will boost up sentiment on the companies. Survival of the fittest is still the name of the game.

So in the wise words of Warren Buffett, “be greedy when the others are fearful”… yes he said that. We all just need to be patient just like him.

Share this:

It’s happening. Manny Pacquiao’s video with FOOT LOCKER (FL) busted out last night giving a dose of fun. Already, FL is my pet trade for Friday’s session with its earnings. I’ve positioned prior session on the back of solid track record on beating earnings estimates but this new .22 quarterly dividend further sweetens the deal! Can’t wait for opening bell!
With the fab “Week of Greatness” campaign being unveiled with the Thanksgiving Holiday next week. as well as the Christmas season on the way, it’s definitely a stock worth getting excited about.

QUICK UPDATE : Foot Locker soared at pre-market but declined steadily during the session. At first I thought it is just normal volatility but it just went badly. This is why position sizing should always be a part of your game plan. When the Stop is hit, get out quick!

My fun book on stocktrading “High Heeled Traders” with explained with shopping, fashion and shoes is available with discount at Amazon.com HERE

_______________

Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL), the New York-based specialty athletic retailer, announced today that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.22 per share, which will be payable on January 30, 2015 to shareholders of record on January 16, 2015.

Foot Locker, Inc. is a specialty athletic retailer that as of November 1, 2014 operated 3,474 stores in 23 countries in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Through its Foot Locker, Footaction, Lady Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Champs Sports, SIX:02, Runners Point, and Sidestep retail stores, as well as its direct-to-customer channels, including footlocker.com, Eastbay.com, and SIX02.com, the Company is a leading provider of athletic footwear and apparel.

Share this:

Wrapped

I read a very interesting article today that investors should sell US stocks and buy EU stocks instead, because…. wait for it,,, it is cheap! They cited that at the time the US was at the same “cheap” levels in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis, it has rallied strongly and predicted the same at the EU, “ECB’s stimulus package includes targeted loans, record-low interest rates, and the purchase of securitized debt. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the central bank will eventually embark on sovereign-bond purchases”. While the US-style QE of “bond purchases” apparently did it’s work of stimulating the economy, I am not very sure that the EU will be a good buy right now. That’s going to be extremely contrarian in my view, and if you are going with this idea, just be careful and be very patient! US growth stalled for a good 4 years before it started growing well enough to be taken off life support …last year….

OK, so where does this lead us? Another rally in US, haven’t we seen record highs already? I think it’s going to be tricky and volatile but we’re still on our way up baby! What with these mega-deals happening (oil companies, pharamaceutical companies, tech companies) that are very good for sentiment, and of course, the US staying in that “sweet spot” of not-too-hot-growth in low inflation environment and increasing jobs. And don’t forget that Christmas is around the corner and the “Santa Claus rally” and “January Effect” will be upon us. My hot tip – stay with the strong sector that benefit from the merry season’s retail upsurge, those that benefit from weak oil prices and the ones that actually beat earnings and reported rise in revenues for 4Q and reasonable valuations. Plus of course, my thoughts is that a volatility-based system will make the most money,,,

Last weekend I had the pleasure of conducting the workshop for “Investing in the US Stockmarket” and I have to say we had some very lively Q and A and very committed participants, some who had attended my past workshops and a few flying in from very far places like Kuwait, Davao (in Southern Philippines), and Bicol Region. One even had sweets for me, and it is much appreciated! More more more 🙂

The tools and resources, slides and Live Trading link was sent out today by Learning Curve, if you don’t have it, check on SPAM folder or let me know! Email at charmel@highheeledtraders.com

HOT OFF THE PRESS! S&P 500 hits another record high on Nov 18.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/u-s-index-futures-little-changed-after-s-p-500-extends-record.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-17/jpmorgan-says-sell-u-s-stocks-buy-europe-on-valuation.html

Share this:

US Markets reaching record-highs again, don’t be left behind! I will be sharing my insights and experience in this webinar in 2 sessions

SATURDAY Nov 8, 2014 5:30 AM SGT at:

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3060494276783645698

This webinar will give a backgrounder for Investing in the US Market. Beginners and seasoned investors would greatly benefit from this webinar as we will discuss the current market situation, why the major US Indices are reaching records, and opportunities for the short-medium term.

Register even if you can’t attend the session to receive slides of the presentation. There will be a repeat of this webinar on Tuesday Nov. 11 9pm Singapore / KL / Manila
REGISTER at this link:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8150597595665931266

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Please use earphones for best audio quality. The workshop for Investing in US Market is on
November 15, 2014 | 9:00am-12:00nn,
AIM Conference Center, Makati City

Brought to you by GoToWebinar®
Webinars Made Easy®

Share this:

I’m sure in many people’s minds, the question is “are we there yet”? Are we at the bottom of the sell-off, is it safe to go and get into stocks? Looking at last night – Dow is down but the S&P and NASDAQ were mostly green for the afternoon and reports at jobless and industrial production both coming in strong, this is another opportunity you could take for a ride up on most stocks on the strong sectors (like a distant love — MMM in Materials sector breaking loose from its downtrend), also note those that benefit from the weak oil prices. Looks like those airlines are finally flying.

GOOG disappointed, I wanted them to keep their winning streak, I really do, but their advertising business is getting away from them, it seems like by the other internet darling “Facebook”. Mobile ads served by Facebook are more palatable also because of the strength of their engagement. I’m going to be watching the FB earnings very closely and if it grows in the same fashion as last quarter I think GOOG has to admit their advantage is gone.

Here are some videos I devoured early today wanting to see how the sentiment is faring out there. I think with EU slow to respond on growth concerns that US will continue to attract investors, but with the “tapering” ending soon, volatility could still be in the market, so get ready for the ride. And I’m delighted to offer an “Introduction to US Investing” event on November 15, in Manila, Philippines. So for you guys who want to strengthen your US Dollar assets (which is going to be the strongest currency by the way) this is an unmissable event. Watch out for the free webinar at my Facebook page. Check it out here.

Share this:

Following yesterday’s market action, I noticed that FB had a mostly up day while the wider market was wallowing in the red, it was a tricky situation, I had to control my “fear” as I watched the price march higher and higher while all 3 major indices was red (as it had done the previous days of high volatility and selloff). Please click the chart to show full picture.

What is happening is the D word “divergence” which, if you’ve been studying a stock for long is a good indicator of the market – usually of a reversal of a trend. Divergence is simply monitoring what the market is doing and seeing if the asset / stock is performing in sync with the market – if not, it is diverging. I did say last Friday that it was the BEST time for bargain-hunting didn’t I! I teach this in my workshops, and the next ones are here.

So following my post early Friday and Monday opened strongly and you could have gotten good profits with volatility-based exit strategies, and I also pointed out the Tuesday Earnings Extravaganza that could push up the market from its lows and I can see FB at pre-market pushing up more than $1 already and US futures rallying on the strong earnings growth from Citibank and Johnson and Johnson. Other banks JPM and WFC both reported good earnings, so, what are we selling about again?

Well, FB with its fast-growth and earnings record dares to be different.

Share this:

The markets continue to follow yesterday’s decline, I have put a small position to profit on the upside just before close yesterday, but I really have no idea whether that will move up, all I know is that the last few days have been very volatile and it could possibly ride a rebound. Now that the sentiment seems to be “continuous selling”, thank God it’s Friday and sellers can get a rest!

Monday is a holiday so in case you are thinking of “bargain hunting” end of close today is could produce excellent results. Why? Holiday in the US could lead investors to just “step aside” and liquidate so that they won’t have to worry about the next market day. Tuesday, big banks like JP Morgan releases their earnings, following a good 2nd Quarter that beat expectations and selling pressure might have worn off then.

Share this:

Third Quarter earnings season is upon us and I am sure it is hard to be “optimistic” given the walloping yesterday not to mention the volatility of the past days. Like yesterday’s weak open after IMF cut growth outlook that reversed strongly when the 10am report on the jobs was released, only to find another sell-off thereafter. I am with you, I sometimes couldn’t believe the “ficklemindedness” of the market, but I guess one thing that this market brings to mind is that when we are looking at short-term data, that we take our profits in line with what the market is doing. It’s that classic line “It’s not you, it’s me” – yes, that’s the market talking.

Also worth noting that since the S&P and many stocks had a robust run during September that the declines were a healthy exercise preparing for the earnings season. Will this be a strong earnings season? There are many who say that it would be with the improved jobs, manufacturing, merger activity supporting this idea, and that current valuation is “reasonable” as Warren Buffett is quoted in this article in Bloomberg.

Just note some factors that could affect your pet stock’s performance :
1. strong US dollar
2. strength of sector (e.g. resources / commodities show weak demand throughout)
3. earnings growth and guidance

Geopolitical factors do spook the market from time to time, so watch out too how that impacts the market (has shown to fade quickly with other news coming in hot!). Russia is so far acting like there’s not much pain on their side but we’ll just have to keep watch.

I’ll be conducting the workshop on “How To Invest In the US Stockmarket” on Nov. 15 so make sure you join us there to maximize your investment returns. Regiser here or at follow this link: http://www.iluvlearning.com/make-money-in-the-us-stock-market/

Share this:

The last few days for bullish investors is trying, very stressful even. So it’s time for investors to become more market-savvy, it’s time to be profitable being in and out of positions moving with the market. Volatility is not going to go away, so my suggestion is to have a volatility-based system and have a good grasp of strategies that will work in this choppy market. Also, seeing that EU and China markets are weakening, one has to be in the best market and below is a video of IMF Chair Christine Lagarde on the US as a clear bright spot in the market. Employment numbers will be out tonight and with the clues from the private employment and jobless claims released this week and overall trend, it is looking to be a positive one. What the market will do is anyone’s guess (the seasonal tendency is volatile but potentially, the last market decline will usher the bargain hunters), but like what I said with EU not expected to perform with its weak economies, the most attractive, growing economy is the US.

And I am delighted to share that I will be conducting a workshop on “Investing in the US Market”. This will be on November 15, 2014. Register here, or go to this link http://www.iluvlearning.com/make-money-in-the-us-stock-market, organized by Learning Curve

What You Will Learn
◾Introduction to the U.S. Financial Universe
◾Best Sectors and Stocks to Trade
◾What to Look for in Stocks
◾Market Movers
◾Instruments and Asset Classes
◾Trading Indicators
◾Effective Strategies
◾Trading Examples
◾Opening a U.S. Brokerage Account
◾Tools and Resources for Investors

Make Money in the US Stock Market

Share this:

Guess why I got time to update this blog?! I slept early 🙂 US market started to just fall over the edge in the first thirty minutes, that’s despite good data coming in from jobs and durable goods early in the day. I reckon, this is going to be a selloff day – because, as I posted last night, with data as good as this, rate rise might VERY soon come into the picture,,, and of course, at these prices, in comes the V word : Valuation.

Since last week, I’ve been feeling queasy at buying FB above 77.50 but, bad weather prevented me from selling my stock instead it carrier over to this week and it kept going up and I was in there hedging… however, that prices marched on and on, so I had to get out of that hedging position quickly and ride the upside. It skipped close to 79 level and I was staring at it at disbelief. Yes, listen to that “intuition” because the day ended, close to 77. And it could go lower, today there is a GDP announcement and it may continue yesterday’s selloff, or some brave souls might go “bargain hunting”. I hope they are brave and quick, because another V word is upon us : Volatility. Herein lies the wisdom of taking System and Market workshops like the one I am giving. So I invite you all to my upcoming workshops, the one scheduled last week was moved because of the flooding, to October 18, but the organizers say that’s already full. Email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com to register your interest for the next. Learn to grow your capital in any market. Get that advantage.

Now, I want to share an article “Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More than 1 Million Trades I enjoyed about a Japanese trader who was once a gamer…. so many nuggets of wisdom (from his interview) :

On “bling” … “The kind of person who wastes money on that stuff would never have made it this far,” says Uemura, whom traders know as Kemu. “Self-control is so important. You have to conserve your assets. That’s what insulates you from the downturns and gives you the ammunition to make money.”

… the game taught a bigger lesson: when to cut and run. “I was a pretty confident player, but just like in the real world, the more opponents you have, the worse your chances are,” he says. “You lose nothing by running.” … CIS says he bets wrong four out of 10 times. The trick is to sell the losers fast while letting the winners ride. For him, a well-played stop-loss is just about the most beautiful trade there is.

And…the One Rule

If there’s one basic principle, he says—repeatedly and slowly, as if instructing a child—it is this: “Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold.”

And just my input : Trading can be stressful, but it does not have to be. I teach managing stress in our workshop “Investing Success Bootcamp”.
———————————————

I must admit, I am feeling less concerned about the time spent gaming of my kids. There’s wisdom after all. LOL

Here’s that article again. Enjoy!

RED on Valuation

Share this: