I normally like to trade at this time of the year. We are transitioning to October and the last quarter of the year that has shown an upward trend to Christmas season in most years. I was planning to do a little bit of bargain hunting (at which I am getting rusty). However, I have to stop myself from trading on this seasonal bias because of the current news. US government shuts down if there is no agreement reached on the budget with expected result of raising the debt limit, we are talking here about the budget that kinda pays for everything for US gov’t. According to this Bloomberg article “There’s no agreement among the government at the moment, and if they can’t agree on the budget, there’s no way they are going to agree on the debt ceiling”.

If there’s continuing struggle in Congress about the budget, I think it also means that, stimulus would likely be on hold by the next meeting. (Yet another reason for bargain hunting).

But, but, but, let us not get too excited and buy right away! Eventually, the US gov’t got to agree on something, we have to be careful of the timing of this transaction. Check out the clues on this video from Dr. Roubini

Share this:

I’m back! Sorry I’ve been away from this blog for a while. I have been busy settling in to a new chapter in my life and making things good and wonderful for me and my kids. You can say I’m enjoying the fruits of my work and studies through the years and I can tell you that the fruits are sweet… I have been “retired” from working the 9-5 job, and use most of my time doing the things and spending most of my time with the people I love.

I got to do both in an adventurous way last weekend, I was invited to give a talk to a convention of finance students out of town, so I prepared my talk on Risk Management and headed down south of Manila early last Saturday with my kids, sisters and their families and my dad. We went on a long and winding road trip around the Taal Volcano after my talk.

I am going to share the content of what I discussed in a special webinar to make up to you all who have been following this blog. Here’s the link to join the event and you will be sent registration details. The webinar is for this evening at 830pm, but if you’re not available, just register anyway so we can send the recorded video of the webinar.

I talked about “thinking fresh” about investing. That, thinking that “investing is making money from money” is a traditional (rather dinosauric) way of thinking and once you have invested, made money, made losses, I bet you would agree, that investing really, is “making money with your ideas”. After all, the quality of your ideas, what to invest in, how much to allocate, when to take profits, all that factor in your decision-making, dictate whether you make a profit or not!

Really? You’d ask, doesn’t the bank only give you the “profits” of your investment when you give them money, so it is “money down, first”. But you see this is just basic investing, that should be more appropriately called “saving”. There is a difference because the money is given a guaranteed return. As you can imagine, when investing money, there are risks and apart from “guaranteed” interest by the bank, which is small by the way (at current interest rates, the Australian interest (highest return with safest rating) is around 4.5%. That’s just a little above inflation (the rise of prices of goods and services) and will not make you rich, or even be enough to give you a happy and healthy lifestyle.

So if you’re ready to JUMPSTART your investment success or ready to STEP UP and correct your investing mistakes, join our webinar here!

Think Fresh

Share this:

BHP reported its Annual Results today and, some of you might remember I wrote about this stock being “new” to me, that while I have been watching this stock for sometime, and trading it every once in a while, I really do not know this stock as much as my long-time love, STO (the oil stock, remember ?!). What happened was, I got in on this stock with ALL I have in early June, just when I thought the May selloff was slowing, acquired it at 33.70, saw it fall to 30.60 level nearing my stop, then back again at 33.00 in a week, which I believe was too quick, and so it happened that up until yesterday the price overshot my target and moved up to 37.14. The good news is I am still holding this stock, the bad news is, I capped my profits with the call option I sold. There was around $3 that was floating away. What was I thinking? I was thinking that the stock had moved so quickly from the bottom that it would return to “saner” price levels. But really, it is the market who decides, and it has decided against me! I was also thinking that I could first try out this stock with a low-risk, modest reward target. And this is the beauty of option, time is in the equation, I sold time with the call options, so even if I was wrong, the profit is there to start with.

Yesterday, after the Australian session they reported annual results of 30% decline in profits. London session saw investors dumping this stock more than 2%, and a similar price decline happened at the Aussie market.

Feels good that once I had panicked when the stop is hit or the price moves opposite to what I wanted, now, having the understanding of the market and factoring behavior of the stock in expectation models, I am making profits sitting myself down, studying my positions rather than acting on short-sighted “impulse”. It is a different story however, if you are “patient” with losses. Being patient with losses is well, a losing game. The loss gets bigger if you don’t have a well-considered stop-loss level. The question is, how do you place your stop? Do you know when you are wrong? It takes patience to learn this from yourself. But it is worth it.

http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/08/20/reuters-tv-breakingviews-big-miners-small-changes?videoId=253541042&videoChannel=117766

Share this:

Moving quite a lot lately, physically, I mean. As for my investment portfolio, I had given my holdings a protective hedge while I knew I was going to be busy, thinking that the stock I am holding are new to me (yes, out with STO and in with BHP), and well, in the getting to know you stage. I have been watching BHP for the longest time, but doing trades with it is different, the volatility is different, the movement is different, so the strategy to use should be different. It also takes adjustment on my part because I have been a band trader for so long which works with volatility, however I found that BHP is not behaving the same way. Yes, it is a mining stock, the biggest miner in the world at that. And metals / commodities are “supposed” to slow down in demand as China growth slows down, but in the last month alone, this stock has jumped more than $5 while I was expecting around $2. It is profit that is getting away. But my consolation is that I made decent profit and learned a ton more about this stock, that while the “demand” is slow on their product, the asset class, “stocks” attracted money from the June bottom of the last selloff. But, lo and behold, the “tapering” talk is back and so the slide once again is happening. Yep, that’s volatility for you, but in a longer timeframe.

So, I want to watch out for more signs, and where else to look but the moves of the titans.
Billionaire investors / traders George Soros and Paulson who are into gold are either cutting aggressively or getting out of gold. That means the money is attracted somewhere else (out of gold). Stocks are not it either.

Get more hints at these article and videos.

Billionaires Paulson, Soros cuts gold stake
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-14/paulson-cuts-spdr-gold-stake-53-as-soros-sells-out.html

Bill Gross : Bond War
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gross-80-likely-fed-tapers-next-month-H5A9gYJvTJm9BUKVGKrBcg.html

Share this:

US indexes reaching record highs at this time of the year had been a surprise, but is it for real? I write about it at InvestorsPlace.com site in the USA where I have been invited to give expert advice at the 24/7 Trader site.

Check out this article
http://investorplace.com/247trader/how-i-test-the-markets-strength/

Meantime, digesting the jobs and economic news and of course, whether or not there is more “cheap money” to be had (i.e. the Fed’S QE3 continuing). Today’s jobless report is “bad news is good news” as jobless claims increased so I won’t wonder about “trimming” or “tapering” in September as some surveys reveal. Jobs can’t improve that much in 2 months to warrant tapering.

Just give me a reason, another reason why the Fed will taper. But if it’s not jobs, I’m not convinced.

Enjoy PINK “Just Give Me A Reason”

Share this:

If there is a word in the investing world that I love to hate, usually, in the context it is being used, is the word “long-term”. Or make that 2 words 🙂 People say “I am holding this investment/stock for the long-term”, “this stock will be a winner in the long-term”. So what’s the problem? Well, you see, this word is often associated with expected results. Like, eventually the investment will turn out to be a winner. When really, it is nothing but a reference to “time”. Time will pass. Time will come. But results are never, never, never guaranteed. Whoever makes a guarantee in investments, especially if they continue to make strong projections after the stockmarket declines but can not cite how you could have pocketed your profits in the first place is “fortune-telling”. In some countries, their “fortune-telling” may be in violation of the law (like Australia have strict rules in investment communications, requiring disclaimers and product disclosures), but for the purpose of the private investor / trader, I’d say, they are being too creative or not good in math!

The other thing is, what people believe as long-term is different from each other. Some believe
1 year is long-term, 3 years is long enough. But I myself was shocked when a financial planner friend of mine, said that long-term is 10 years. For some, it’s even kind of a moving target. 🙂

Consider this, when you buy a stock at $45 like BHP (shown below) which had reached a high of $49.81 (back in 2011), when will the investment be profitable again in the “long-term”?

________________________________________________________________________

2 years on, the price it had reached was only as as high as $38.70. You could have made a good profit of 4.00 if you sold out at 49.00. These are the critical ideas you should have known

1. Invest according to your objectives

2. Study the market dynamics

3. Formulate  exit strategies to take your profit

Not just investing for the “long-term” which is vague and, to me, uninspiring. When will you ever get what you truly want and deserve if you keep on going like this?

I discuss the above concepts in my  Retirement Investing Webinar along with the Income Investing Workshop which are results-oriented events that will help you to keep your profits (not let them vanish into thin air!) and invest efficiently.  Like when the market is in decline which I pointed out at various time in this blog even before it happened,  you could have gotten out with your profits and spent the time of decline relaxing (or shopping!).  Instead of wondering what happened or worse, worrying about your capital.

So join my events, let me help you meet your goals, and be happy investing. Email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com for the next schedules.

Meantime, TRY to RETHINK your “long-term” beliefs, strategy, and objectives. Know when something is wrong and change it.   “When you’re out there doing what you’re doing, are you just getting by”… Enjoy this video of PINK in “TRY”.

Share this:

I’m back from vacation! I told you I would be gone, didn’t I? I had a good time with my kids island hopping, swimming, eating (my kids discovers “bibingka” rice cake with sweet coconut syrup on top), spending time and shopping for my oldies. I did leave word that market action would be choppy (markets going cha cha in this post) so I hope you too were able to take a break from the market, get rested or have fun.

I admit, I wasn’t able to totally stay away. Somehow, checking prices, looking up charts and reading up on news is already part of my routine. So I really had to be aware of my schedule and objectives so that I don’t get impulsive and open trades when I know the move could be short term and I am not available to monitor it. What really helped me is my trading procedure that I have documented step-by-step in my book, so don’t waste any more time and money in trial and error and get a copy of “High Heeled Traders” here. Or if you’ve got it, review! Like now!

So anyway, it is a pleasant surprise coming back from vacation to have US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke “saving” the stockmarket from further selloff or prolonged consolidation and giving the market a boost with his statement supporting the current monetary stimulus. Talk about the “T” word (for tapering) got a little bit out of hand I suppose, with some saying the tapering could start in September (2 months away!) when clearly, Ben thinks it should be WHEN economic recovery is well and truly on the way. Jobs are the prime basis, so watch those job reports.

And watch out for more factors that influence the market, especially emerging markets like Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines (the stockmarket darlings of the year!) so you would know the best strategies for profitable trading in this current market. If you think there must be a better way (and there is!) rather than the often-talked up “invest for the long term”, especially when the market slides and profits vanish in thin air, then my upcoming webinar series “Retirement Investing Webinar” is for you! It is scheduled on July 25, 26, 27 and will be recorded for your convenience. Details here. I will have a free intro webinar so email charmel@highheeledtraders.com to register your interest.

Saved by the Ben

Share this:

So the US Federal Reserve came out with their “tapering statement” today and the markets are sorely disappointed, if that 206 points drop by the DOW tells us anything!
It wasn’t all that bad,,, US Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said if the US economy significantly improves, they will start the tapering, and some point out that’s possible towards the end of the year. But the Fed likes to keep things exciting and did say they don’t offer a specific timeline, “Our purchases are tied to what happens in the economy,” he said. “We have no deterministic or fixed plan.” CNN Article here. It’s the uncertainty that’s leaving everyone in a jumble but if I’m the Fed I’d say “what do you expect me to do”! (Like you can’t hurry love!) It’s got to be done sometime because these are part of the “extraordinary measures” they did to support the US (and global) economy but you know, it’s all see how it goes. Alas, investors have different minds (and patience) 🙂 , so, the majority wins I guess, and the majority just wanted to sell. Maybe go for vacation,,, which is what I will be doing in a couple of days!

Or maybe even learn to do some cha cha dancing because that’s what we’re going to have — some toing and froing, dipping and rising in the markets for months to come until we get firmer policy direction. I have been mentioning that for sometime. OK, so what to do! It’s time to (if you have not already) adjusted your investing/trading strategy to what the market is doing! “Trend following” might have to give way to “Band Trading” which makes more money from the volatility. Band Trading will let you enter your trades when see “oversold” or “overbought” levels. In other words, when you think it is “way too cheap” (from the selloff) it’s time to buy. The tricky part is, how do you know when that is! More study is definitely needed, the obvious basis is the price, but I would factor the understanding of market dynamics, and seasonality (there is a schedule to all this ?!) Oh yes! Most important now is to manage risk and get your system, specifically your exit strategies in place. So I invite you to my next webinar series “Retirement Investing” happening in July, and if you want to make the most profits from this environment, not lose money with the wrong strategy, join us – email me at charmel@highheeledtraders.com.

Meantime, get ready to chacha in the markets with this spectacular dance …Enjoy!

Share this:

The awaited moment has arrived… err, soon to arrive. Today the US Fed starts its 2-day policy meeting. Tomorrow, the official announcement on “to taper or not to taper” comes out. I’m actually wondering what they will be doing that whole time because their announcement will probably be the same as last : “We will support the economy” plus a little trickle of data to support that claim! You’d wonder why there was this huge slide, panic and choppy financial markets only to hear that same thing again from the Fed.

One thing to remember, stick it out with the Fed. This relationship is like a parent-child relationship though, there is no power-sharing or being on equal terms! (Yes mothers another important clue!) Yes, the Fed would nurture, bend a little to “smooth over” worries of the financial markets. But at the end of the day, you got to follow what the Fed wants to do.  Most of the time, they will be doing what really is the best for the country.  They are mandated to achieve “maximum employment, stable prices, and maintain moderate long-term interest”. That’s got to be good, correct?!  Check out the full statement here. Central banks around the world have the same mandate. So look out for what your central bankers are doing.

But of course the financial market is pretty much “open season” all the time, people basically do whatever they want. There are selloffs for various reasons, and notice what has been happening in the last 2 days, investors are buying up pushing stock prices / indexes up again — an “anticipation” of what the Fed will do. So when “it happens”, what’s next? Therein lies the challenge. I provide the lessons on market dynamics, risk management and exit strategies for profiting in this environment in my webinars – here.

Meantime, chill and enjoy this video.

Share this: